今年以来，德国大型廉价品零售商Aldi Nord和Aldi Sud两次上调狭鳕鱼条（Fischstabchen鱼条，一种德国市场特需商品）价格，450克包装产品零售价先从年初的€1.99上涨到€2.19，近两个月又调价至€2.89。有业者担忧，作为一款稳定货架商品，频繁上调价格可能打击消费需求，从而导致原料市场降温。
Aldi and iglo brands are one of the largest buyers of Pollock PbO raw materials. The sharp rise in terminal prices means that the global Pollock supply chain has undergone subtle changes.
A raw material supplier (source a) pointed out that the current high price of Aldi finished products was reflected in the U.S. raw material market in the a quarter. The price of PBO fish fillet had risen to $4400-$4500/ton, and the contract price in the B quarter had been raised to $5000-$5100/ton. There was a deal in the European market. The price of Russian PbO products is $500-$600/ton lower than that of the United States. On the one hand, Russian products are sanctioned by Europe and the United States. On the other hand, Russian production has increased significantly this year, and PbO production capacity is relatively strong.
According to statistics, the output of Russian fish fillets reached 82832 tons in the first half of the year, an increase of 43%year-on-year. As of July 19, the output of PBO in the United States was only 50120 tons, and the output of deepskin (a high-end fish fillet, which is supplied to McDonald’s and other large fast food chains) was 29223 tons. In quarter B, Alaska’s PbO output was 13595 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and deepskin output was 9442 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38%.
A Pollock product sales director (source b) said:”At present, the market has a lot of confusion about the price of Russian PbO. A few weeks ago, the last batch of season a shipments just arrived in Europe, and the previous quotation of unsold inventory goods of $3000-4000/ton rose to $4500/ton, or even $4600-$4700/ton. For the quotation of quarter B, most Russian suppliers are still waiting and waiting, because the time to arrive in Europe is the end of autumn. We predict that the price of Russian PbO will also follow the quotation of the United States, and may go up Up to $5000/ton, although Russia’s single freezing production has increased, it cannot make up for the gap in the capacity of the United States and China (secondary freezing).”
Source a believes that,”The market price may be stable at $4500/ton, so there is little room for further price increase. First, in the general sense, an 8%rise in prices in Germany will hit demand. The current inflation level is too high, and the increase in end products is too large. The second is the exchange rate. The exchange rate between the euro and the dollar in quarter a is € 1.15/$1, and now it is € 1/$1, which means that the price of raw materials has increased by 15%. So I don’t think there is any possibility of price increase for PbO products.”
“Russian suppliers are still waiting and waiting. At this stage, they are mainly discussing the price of inventory in quarter a, and the sales in quarter B have not yet started. Businesses are also observing the situation of the consumer market to see whether the price rise affects demand.” He added,”Usually, the sales in summer are relatively low, but it does not mean that the market is down. To be honest, I don’t think we will see a decline in demand for Pollock products, especially considering the overall rise in food prices. Compared with Starbucks latte, iglo and other private brand fish sticks are still cheaper. Germans may not buy latte coffee every day, but they will always buy fish sticks for children. Even if the demand declines, it is also a part of the market We can adjust the supply appropriately by cooling the demand, and the tight supply situation will last at least until next year.”
Source a said that the production of PBO in the United States will begin to decline in the second half of the year. The quota in the main production areas of the Bering Sea will be reduced by 19%. Alaska producers will focus on the production of surimi and deepskin, rather than PbO.
The above sources believe that Russia will return to h& in the second half of the year; G (head and dirt removal) supply of raw materials, which are mainly exported to China for secondary freezing processing.
Since the beginning of 2022, Russia h& G production was 384179 tons, a decrease of 4%over the same period in 2021 and 29%over the same period in 2020. H& The price of G products is in the range of $1550-$1620/ton. After being made into deeply processed products in China, they will be labeled with the label of Chinese origin, which will not be affected by trade barriers. Therefore, for Russian suppliers, increase h& G production will be the easiest way to realize.