Global feed Market:the black sea export is expected to recover, and the feed market fell
By: Date: 2022-07-25 Categories: Uncategorized

On Friday, the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) closed at about $5.6425/pu in December 2022, down 6.5%from a week ago. The spot price of Meiwan No. 2 yellow corn was $6.6575 per bushel, down 9.9%from a week ago. The November 2022 corn period of Euronext exchange closed at about 302 euros/ton, down 1.1%from a week ago. The FOB quotation of Argentine corn on the river was $263/ton, down 4%from a week ago. On Friday, the September 2022 corn period of Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at about 2577 yuan/ton, down 4.4%from a week ago. The US dollar index closed at 106.621 points on Friday, down 1.2%from a week ago. International crude oil futures rose strongly on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closing at $94.70 per barrel in September, up 0.14%from a week ago, and also rising for the first time in three weeks.
Five months after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, on July 22, Russian Defense Minister Dan IGU, Ukrainian infrastructure minister kublakov, Turkish President Erdogan and United Nations Secretary General Guterres signed a written agreement in Istanbul to ensure the operation of the Black Sea Grain Export corridor. The Quartet will establish a control center in Istanbul, consisting of officials from the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, Responsible for managing and coordinating the export of Ukrainian grains and Russian grains and fertilizers through the Black Sea port. The agreement is valid for 120 days and can be renewed. Odessa port, chernomorsk port and pivdenni port are all within the scope of the agreement. Ukraine is responsible for escorting ships away from the waters where its mines are located; At the request of Russia, Turkish and UN officials will monitor that the cargo ships bound for Ukraine have not smuggled weapons. Ukraine is a major exporter of corn in the world. If exports from Black Sea ports resume, it will help improve global supply.
One day after the signing of the agreement, Turkish defense minister hurus akar said on July 23 that representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations have now begun to work with Turkey in the joint coordination center. However, one day after the signing of the agreement, the port of Odessa, Ukraine’s main export hub in the Black Sea, was attacked by missiles. Ukrainian officials accused Russia of launching the attack, saying the port was hit by at least four cruise missiles. Ukraine claimed that two of the missiles were intercepted and the granary was not affected. However, the Turkish defense minister said that Russia had told him that Russia had nothing to do with the attack.
The weekly report on crop progress of the United States Department of agriculture showed that as of July 17, the excellent rate of corn had stabilized at 64%for the second consecutive week, and 65%in the same period last year. The growth of corn slightly lags behind the normal, with the silking rate of 37%, 15%last week, 52%in the same period last year, and the five-year average of 48%. At present, the situation in the Midwest of the United States is still seriously divided. There is more rainfall in the eastern region, and the temperature is 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit lower than normal. However, the drought in the western region is intensifying. This week, it is also affected by the heat wave. The temperature from Minnesota to Missouri is higher than normal, the southern half of Minnesota continues to experience a short-term drought, the moderate drought in the central region expands, and the drought in Missouri intensifies, The severe drought in Western Kentucky has expanded. Analysts expect the crop progress report next Monday to show that the corn rating will be reduced by 1-3 points, to 61-63%, 64%in the same period last year, and the five-year average of 65%. The weather forecast shows that there may be some scattered showers in the Midwest this weekend, and another cold air front will bring more showers next week.
According to the monthly report of the International Grain Council (IGC), the global corn production forecast for 2022/23 was reduced by 1million tons to 1.189 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, mainly due to the heat wave and drought in the agricultural production areas of the European Union, whose corn production was reduced by 1.7 million tons to 76.5 million tons. IGC this month lowered the global corn consumption in 2022/23 to 1.202 billion tons, down 2million tons from the previous month. The ending inventory remained unchanged at 271million tons.
According to the weekly export sales report of the U.S. Department of agriculture, as of the week of July 14, 2022, the net sales volume of corn in the United States in 2021/22 was 33900 tons, 43%lower than last week and 82%lower than the four week average. The net sales volume in 2022/23 was 570200 tons, compared with 348200 tons a week ago. So far in 2021/22, the total sales volume of corn in the United States (including the sales volume of loaded and unloaded) has been 60.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%; In 2022/23, the total sales of corn in the United States was 7million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%.
Brazil has harvested more than half of its corn in the second season, and the market supply has improved. According to the consulting company home agribusiness (Pan), as of July 14, the progress of Brazil’s second season corn harvest in 2021/22 reached 53%, an increase of 9%over a week ago, higher than 32%in the same period of last year and 45%of the five-year average progress. However, considering the recent sharp decline in corn prices, farmers’ enthusiasm for harvest and sales is not high. Farmers choose to slow down the pace of field work to reduce the water content of corn crops.
Consulting firm datagro said that as of July 8, Brazilian farmers had sold 43.4%of the second season corn, up 4.8%from a month ago, lower than 65.4%in the same period last year, and the historical average was 58.7%. Due to the slow sales of soybeans in 2021/22, many granaries were full, and the newly harvested second season corn was facing storage problems. In Mato Grosso, the second season corn harvest speed is very fast, and the storage problem is more prominent, resulting in a large number of newly harvested corn can only be stored in the open air. If operated properly, the quality of corn stacked in the open air can also be maintained. However, if the operation is improper, the corn will lose some weight due to excessive drying, and may also be damaged by insects.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, China’s corn imports in June 2022 were 2.21 million tons, higher than 2.08 million tons in May, a decrease of 38.2%over the same period last year. The import volume from January to June was 13.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The import volume of Sorghum in June was 930000 tons, lower than 1.67 million tons in May, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%; From January to June, the import volume was 6.02 million tons, an increase of 25.7%year on year.