On Thursday (July 21), the delivery price of first-class French wheat at the French port of Rouen was 370 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars from a week ago. The price range over the past 52 weeks has ranged from $252 to $472 per ton.
On Thursday, the price of second-class wheat on the river in Argentina was 420 yuan/ton, down $8 from a week ago; The price of No.2 hard red winter wheat in the United States was $381/ton, up $9 from a week ago; The price of No. 2 soft red winter wheat in the United States was $337/ton, up $12 from a week ago.
At Euronext in Paris, December wheat futures, the most actively traded on Friday, closed at 312.5 euros/ton, down 4.25 euros or 1.34%from a week ago; Chicago wheat futures fell 2.29%in the same period.
Traders said that China is taking advantage of the recent decline in wheat prices to seize the opportunity to purchase. China also bought at least two ships of French Wheat with 10.5%protein this week, and it was also said to buy as many as seven ships, with shipping dates from September to November.
French wheat exports in July are expected to set a record for that month. So far this month, France has exported 511200 tons of wheat to non EU, higher than the global monthly exports in 2020 and 2021, when 461000 tons and 227000 tons of crops were exported respectively. According to shipping data, the export volume may reach 800000 tons by the end of July, breaking the record of 775000 tons of crops in the same period in 2010/11. This month’s wheat export was mainly supported by Moroccan buyers, because Morocco’s domestic wheat production was poor. According to the prediction of the U.S. Department of agriculture, it was only 2.25 million tons, estimated to be the lowest in 15 years. Therefore, the government raised import taxes this year.
In the past few weeks, French wheat has gained international competitiveness. Except for the soft red winter wheat in the United States, the price of French wheat has been lower than that of wheat from other major producing areas. In addition, France’s freight advantage over the United States in North Africa means that French wheat is the most competitive wheat in the region. Agritel estimates that France will export 10.75 million tons of wheat to the world in 2022/23, up from about 8.8 million tons last year.
In Rouen port, France’s number one wheat export port, the port operator haropa company said that the grain export volume of Rouen port had reached 204517 tons as of the week of July 20, far higher than 35600 tons a week ago. Among them, the export volume of wheat was 118854 tons, three times that of a week ago, all of which were shipped to Morocco. 82513 tons of barley were also shipped to China that week.
At present, the progress of French wheat harvest is much higher than that of the same period last year. By Monday, 84%of the wheat harvest had been completed. Early harvest results showed that the quality of wheat was satisfactory. A major French agricultural cooperative said the average protein content of wheat was 11.9%.
On July 13, the official website of the franceagrimer under the French Ministry of Agriculture released the first supply and demand forecast report for 2022/23 (July to June). It is expected that in 2022/23, France’s wheat exports to countries outside the European Union will reach 10.3 million tons, an increase of 17%over the 8.8 million tons reduced last year, the highest since 2019/20. The export of Ukraine was blocked, while the drought in Morocco led to an increase in import demand, driving the growth of French wheat export demand at the beginning of the year. Although there are still uncertainties in China’s demand and Russia’s exports, French wheat prices are competitive because the euro exchange rate has fallen to almost parity with the US dollar, which helps boost the prospects for French wheat exports. In terms of old season wheat, franceagrimer lowered the wheat export volume of France to non EU countries in 2021/22, lower than the estimated 9.1 million tons in June, which is also the fourth consecutive month of lowering export expectations.
On July 14, the French strategic grain company reduced the EU wheat production in 2022/23 to 123.3 million tons, lower than the expected 124.4 million tons in June and 129.9 million tons in the previous year. In contrast, the US Department of agriculture lowered the expected value of all wheat production in the EU by 2million tons to 134.1 million tons in its monthly supply and demand report on July 12, also lower than 138.42 million tons in the previous year. Last week, the survey results of 13 analysts showed that the soft wheat production of 27 EU countries will reach 125.7 million tons in 2022/23, a decrease of 3.4%over the previous year.
According to the monthly report released by the European Commission on July 1, the available output of soft wheat in the EU in 2022/23 (July to June) was 125.044 million tons, lower than the forecast of 130.39 million tons last month and 130.14 million tons last year, mainly due to the reduction of wheat production in France, Poland, Romania and Spain. However, the blocked Black Sea grain exports boosted the prospects for EU wheat exports. The EU maintains the forecast value of 38million tons of soft wheat exports in 2022/23, which will be a record export volume, far higher than the 30million tons in 2021/22. The decrease in output led to a decrease of 4million tons to 13.2 million tons at the end of 2022/23.
According to the data of the European Commission, as of July 1, the wheat export volume of 27 EU countries in 2022/23 was 364000 tons, compared with 294000 tons in the same period last year; The import volume was 65000 tons, up from 66000 tons in the same period last year. The number one buyer is Morocco 76000 tons, with a share of 21.0%; Saudi Arabia, the second largest buyer, has 58000 tons, with a share of 16.0%, and Tunisia, the third largest buyer, has 55000 tons, with a share of 15.1%.
In 2021/22, the wheat export volume of 27 EU countries reached 27.47 million tons, an increase of 6.84%year-on-year; The import volume was 2.46 million tons, an increase of 21.49%year-on-year.
Euronext position data showed that as of July 15, investment funds and financial institutions held 80188 net excess orders in the Euronext flour wheat futures and options market, down from 97045 a week ago.
On Friday, the exchange rate of the euro closed at 1.021 US dollars, up from 1.01 US dollars a week ago.
Note:1 euro equals 1.021 US dollars