The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced on the 14th that since this year, my country’s live pig production has continued to maintain a momentum of recovery. At present, the stock of live pigs is close to the level of normal years.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in April, the number of reproductive sows increased by 1.1%month-on-month, which was an increase for 19 consecutive months and a year-on-year increase of 23.0%, equivalent to 97.6%at the end of 2017. At present, the number of live pigs has been maintained at more than 416 million heads, which is basically close to the level of normal years.
my country’s live pig production maintains a recovery momentum and is close to the normal level
Picture Xin Guochang, second-level inspector of the Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:Let’s probably figure it out. If we calculate that each reproductive sow can provide 16 fat pigs a year, then the current stock of reproductive sows , The amount of fat pigs provided for slaughter can reach more than 690 million in one year. This also means that the amount of sows we can now propagate is basically sufficient if we follow the normal production efficiency.
Xin Guochang said that at present, the pace of transformation and upgrading of the pig industry in my country is accelerating, and two positive signs have emerged:First, the rapid development of large-scale breeding. The number of large-scale pig farms increased from 161,000 at the beginning of last year to the current 180,000, and the number of newborn piglets on large-scale pig farms increased by 58.8%year-on-year. Second, pig farmers pay more attention to production efficiency. The elimination of low-yielding sows has continued to accelerate. In April, the number of sows eliminated from large-scale farms increased by 18%month-on-month and 96%year-on-year.
Xin Guochang, Second Inspector, Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:Everyone is gradually replacing low-yielding sows with high-yielding sows, which is also a manifestation of industrial transformation and upgrading. So judging from the current situation, the recovery of production is basically close to normal.
Market supply increases, pork prices fall for 15 consecutive weeks
Monitoring data shows that with the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity, the market supply has increased. At present, pork prices have fallen for 15 consecutive weeks.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ monitoring data on the national fair trade market, in May, the price of pork in the national fair trade market was 36.09 yuan per kilogram, which has fallen for 15 consecutive weeks, down 29.3%year-on-year, and 18.13 yuan lower than the highest price in January. , Which is 23.55 yuan lower than the highest price last year.
Xin Guochang said that in April, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughter enterprises above designated size nationwide was 18 million, a year-on-year increase of 41%. In this context, despite the continued recovery of catering consumption during the May 1st holiday and the release of consumer demand compensation, the pork market price did not rise but fell.
Xin Guochang, Second Inspector, Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:We estimate that there will be another peak in consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival, which may drive up meat prices. However, judging from the current situation, even if the peak of Dragon Boat Festival consumption drives up the price of pork, it will not be too large.
Prices have fallen and costs have risen, and the efficiency of pig breeding has narrowed
However, as the price of pork continues to fall and various breeding costs continue to increase, the efficiency of pig breeding has gradually narrowed.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that before the African swine fever outbreak in 2018, the cost of pig breeding was about 12.5 yuan per kilogram, and the current increase has increased by 4.5 yuan. Among them, the cost of pig breeding caused by the increase in corn prices increased by about 280 yuan per head. At the same time, cost items such as disease prevention, piglet costs, labor costs, and depreciation have increased to varying degrees.
In the long run, the increase in the cost of pig breeding is rigid, and once it rises, it is difficult to lower it again. With the addition of slaughter and circulation, the retail price of pork will inevitably rise.
In response to the current decline in breeding efficiency and the signs of losses in some farms, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is exploring and formulating control plans to stabilize pig production to promote stable pig production and supply.