The Russian”Communiqué” reported on March 21 that the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations pointed out in the report that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has exacerbated the systemic risks faced by the global food market. The average number of natural fires, extreme weather, pests and other disasters each year is more than three times that of the 1970s and 1980s. According to estimates by FAO experts, agriculture accounts for 63%of the losses caused by these disasters.
Russian experts remain calm on the above statement. Experts from Russian research institutions said that Russia is not a problem country in terms of food. In the past two decades, breakthroughs have been made in the development of Russia’s agricultural sector, which not only guarantees basic food for the country, but also plays an important role in the export market. Despite this, the growth of world food market prices and the weakening of the ruble have had a significant impact on Russian food inflation. The average annual price of Russian wheat has risen by 19%year-on-year, and the prices of flour producers, macaroni and bread consumers have all increased.
The Russian government has adopted measures such as export quotas and higher tariffs to reduce the price of grain in Russia. According to estimates by Russian research institutions, compared with the peak at the end of 2020, the price of third-grade wheat in the Russian Central Federal District will drop by 15%-20%in the second half of 2021. This may have a negative impact on the grain production sector. Will this measure be effective? The positive effect depends on the predictability of the Russian government’s future policies.
”Industrial Russia” General Council member Bishennov said that in fact, artificially adjusting the prices of certain products will not solve the problem of commodity supply, but will force sellers and manufacturers to re-plan the supply chain, leading to commodity shortages and Prices of other commodities have risen.
Some experts believe that timely restrictive measures may be effective, but it is not advisable for the Russian government to impose commodity price restrictions. The lack of a systematic method to directly intervene in the market mechanism will indirectly lead to inflation and commodity shortages.
Russian experts believe that no country can avoid rising food prices, and all countries have begun to increase the money supply to minimize the losses caused by the epidemic crisis. When currency increases, food prices will rise. Experts predict that the food inflation rate in 2021 will be about 6.5%, but the prices of certain products will rise by 10%to 20%, or even 30%.