Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021
By: Date: 2021-04-08 Categories: industrynews Tags: ,
  China Starch Industry Association & Zhuochuang Information jointly released the monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021.
  1

  Price summary

  Domestic corn spot trading price
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image
  Note:The national average price is calculated by the weighted average of the average price of all regions in the above table.
   According to statistics, the national average monthly price of corn in March 2021 was 28.58.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.39 yuan/ton from the average price in February, a decrease of 1.05%from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 53.21%.
  2

  Raw corn

   market review
  National average corn price trend
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(1)
  Northeast China:Concentrated increase in volume in phases, Northeast corn fell sharply
   The Northeast corn market fell sharply in March. After the Lantern Festival, the temperature turned warmer, and farmers’ enthusiasm for selling grains increased significantly. Since the beginning of the month, large quantities of grains from the northeast have been put on the market. This has led to a substantial increase in the quantity of goods arriving in front of the downstream deep processing in the northeast. In addition to the deep processing demand, the downstream feed Demand continues to be weak, coupled with the obvious price advantage of alternatives such as wheat, the Northeast corn is basically difficult to export, and the negative impact of swine fever and other negative effects is added, and the Northeast corn has begun to enter a continuous decline channel. As of the end of the month, Heilongjiang second-class mainstream car prices were 2600-2680 yuan/ton, low-end prices fell 100 yuan/ton from last month, high-end prices fell 170 yuan/ton; Jilin mainstream prices were 2720-2760 yuan/ton, low-end prices were higher A monthly decline of 120 yuan/ton, high-end prices fell by 130 yuan/ton, and individual deep-processing high-end prices fell by more than 200 yuan/ton; Liaoning mainstream 2740-2780 yuan/ton, low-end prices fell 150 yuan/ton from last month, high-end prices fell 200 yuan/ton.
  North China:Market supply is loose, and North China corn fluctuates weakly
   This month, corn prices in North China maintained a volatile and weak trend. At the beginning of the month, there was generally rain and snow in North China. The quantity of goods arriving at the front of the company was significantly reduced, and the price of corn for downstream enterprises increased widely, and then the impact of the weather quickly subsided. Traders became more enthusiastic about shipments, and the quantity of corn arrived quickly recovered, and the price of corn was narrow. The amplitude is reduced. After the mid-term, as prices in the Northeast became loose, the willingness of local grain sources to go out of the warehouse increased. In addition, some Northeast sources gradually entered the North China production area. The market supply was relatively loose. The volume of enterprise arrivals remained high, and the price center continued to fall. As of the end of the month, the Shandong deep processing plant mainstream purchases were 2830-3000 yuan/ton, which was a reduction of 120 yuan/ton for the low-end price and 120 yuan/ton for the high-end price from last month. At the end of the month, the mainstream corn price in Shandong market was 2780-2880 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the low end of last month, and the high-end price fell 90 yuan/ton; Hebei was 2750-2880 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the low end of last month Tons, the high-end price is lowered by 100 yuan/ton; Henan is 2820-2880 yuan/ton, which is 20 yuan/ton lower than last month’s low-end price, and the high-end price is lowered 20 yuan/ton.
  Southern region:terminal demand is sluggish, corn prices continue to decline
   The price of corn in the southern region dropped significantly in March. Due to the concentrated listing of local grains in the northeast, traders in the producing areas were actively shipping and quotations continued to decline. However, terminal demand was sluggish. Feed companies purchased very few corn, substitutes and imported corn. Squeezing the corn market, the overall corn transaction is not good, resulting in the continued decline in the arrival price of corn in the southern sales area. At present, medium and large feed companies in the south still purchase more substitutes for wheat and rice. In addition, some manufacturers have imported corn supplements, and domestic corn mainly needs sporadic replenishment. As of the end of this month, the mainstream transaction price of corn in the northeast of central China was 2850-3130 yuan/ton, the low-end fell 170 yuan/ton from the end of last month, the high-end fell 140 yuan/ton; the mainstream arrival price in southwestern China was 2900-3250 yuan /Ton, the low-end fell 240 yuan/ton, the high-end fell 200 yuan/ton; the South China coastal areas port self-raised 2800-2950 yuan/ton, the low-end fell 160 yuan/ton, and the high-end fell 100 yuan/ton.
  Statistics of grain sales progress in major domestic corn producing areas
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(2)
  Statistics of grain sales progress in Northeast China
   The progress of corn sales in Northeast China in March was faster than the same period last year. According to statistics, as of March 31, the progress of farmers’ grain sales in Northeast China was 92%, compared with 84%in the same period last year, 8%faster. Among them, the progress of grain sales in Heilongjiang is 95%, 86%in the same period last year, 9%faster; 86%in Jilin, 79%in the same period last year, 7%faster; Liaoning 93%, 88%in the same period last year, 5%faster; Inner Mongolia 92%, 83%in the same period last year, 9%faster.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(3)
  Statistics on the progress of grain sales in North China
   The progress of corn grain sales in North China in March continued to be faster than the same period last year. According to statistics, as of March 31, farmers’ grain sales progress in North China was 88%, compared with 72%in the same period last year, 16%faster. Among them, the progress of grain sales in Shandong is 89%, 75%in the same period last year, 14%faster; 87%in Hebei, 67%in the same period last year, 20%faster; 91%in Henan, 74%in the same period last year, 17%faster; 85%in Shanxi, The same period last year was 73%, 12%faster.
  3

  Main product of deep processing of corn
  3.1

   corn starch
  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(4)
  Corn starch price trend chart
   In March, the domestic corn starch spot market continued to fall, and the market as a whole showed a continuous downward trend. The market lacks effective guarantees for stabilizing and stabilizing declines, and companies have clearly insufficient confidence in prices, and the overall focus of negotiations tends to be low. First of all, raw material corn has been impacted by the centralized listing of grains in the northeast, and the supply has increased significantly, the cost support has continued to decline, and the deep processing enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and continue to buy at low prices. Secondly, the recovery of downstream demand is slow, and the demand of major downstream industries such as starch sugar, papermaking and food has been suppressed, and the purchase of raw materials has been reduced, and the inventory is basically replenishment on demand. Increasing market supply pressure and weak downstream demand have played a role in pushing prices down. This month, major companies have continuously lowered prices to test market acceptance. However, shipments have not improved after the price cuts, and the overall buying and selling sentiment in the market is not good. The average market price in the production area this month was 3570.75 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 33.77 yuan/ton, or 0.94%. A year-on-year increase of 1,265.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.89%. The average market price in the sales area was 3731.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.51 yuan/ton from the previous month, or 2.32%. A year-on-year increase of 1219.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.54%.

   operating rate analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(5)
   Corn starch operating rate trend chart
   The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise in March, especially in Shandong, which has now recovered to nearly 80%. Affected by the increase in corn market supply this month, major companies have sufficient raw materials to continuously increase production load with high profitability. However, due to the gradual increase in market supply, the downstream demand for corn starch has been insufficiently released, and the supply of major companies is not smooth, and the pressure on supply and sales has continued to increase, pushing the price of corn starch down continuously. According to monitoring, the average monthly operating rate of the national corn starch industry is 65.03%, an increase of 17.03 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 5.26 percentage points from the same period last year.
  Profit analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(6)
   Corn starch profit trend chart
   The processing profit of the corn starch industry turned from profit to loss in March, and the decline in profit was mainly due to the continuous decline in the spot prices of main products and by-products this month. Since March, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has continued to rise, but the downstream demand has been recovering slowly, the main companies have not been able to sell their goods smoothly, the market has strong supply and demand, and the contradiction between market supply and demand has been sharp. The price competition among enterprises in different regions has been fierce, and the price trend has continued to decline. Although the raw material market is adequately supplied and prices are showing a slow downward trend, the decline is not as good as corn starch and by-products. The profitability of deep processing companies is constantly being swallowed and losses have occurred at the end of the month. The theoretical average monthly processing profit of corn starch enterprises in Shandong in March was 93.48 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 71.79 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 113.84 yuan/ton in March 2020 profit.
  3.2

   Starch Sugar
  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(7)
  Crystalline glucose price chart
   The shipment price of crystalline glucose continued to decline in March, with an overall decline of 200-300 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the price decline is because the price of raw corn has continued to be weak since entering March, leading to lower costs and lower prices. On the other hand, downstream demand is off-season, poor procurement, coupled with strong buying up and not buying down sentiment, downstream stocks are cautious. Manufacturers have poorly signed orders, and the pressure on shipments is greater. With lower costs and poor delivery, companies bid for shipments, and prices continued to decline. With sufficient supply of raw materials in March, the overall start-up of enterprises was slightly higher, and the recent increase in inventory has gradually suppressed prices.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(8)
  Maltose syrup price chart
   Maltose syrup shipment prices were weak in March, and the overall market decline was around 100 yuan/ton. In March, the downstream demand for beer, sweets, pastries, etc. was off-season, with poor pick-ups, slow overall market consumption, poor supply of enterprises, and continued weakening of raw material corn prices, lower costs, and a strong bearish atmosphere in the market, suppressing market prices Decline. As of the end of the month, the shipping price of 75%maltose syrup in Shandong is 3070-3450 yuan/ton, the shipping price of 75%maltose syrup in Hebei is 3070-3150 yuan/ton, the shipping price in Jilin is 3200-3300 yuan/ton, and the price in South China is 75 yuan. The shipping price of%maltose syrup is 3500-3700 yuan/ton.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(9)
  Fructose syrup price chart
   The shipping price of fructose syrup in March remained stable, and the company supplies fixed customers. The end demand is general, the downstream consumption is off-season, restricting the overall start of the market, the manufacturers supply some major customers just need to purchase, the price of raw corn continues to be weak, the cost is falling, the room for business transactions and negotiations has increased compared with the previous month, and the manufacturers generally responded that the sales volume in March was year-on-year. Better, it also supports the price to a certain extent. Up to now, the current F55 Shandong ex-factory price in Shandong area is 3500-3600 yuan/ton, the northeast mainstream is 3200-3300 yuan/ton, and the South China market is 3600-3800 yuan/ton. The mainstream of the enterprise is stable. In March, we will focus on preparing for the second quarter to sign orders, and the price change will be cautious. . From the perspective of the substitution relationship with white sugar, based on the domestic average price of white sugar 5290 yuan/ton, the price difference between white sugar and fructose syrup is 368 yuan/ton, the price of fructose syrup is high, and the price of white sugar fluctuates at a low level. The short-term price difference between the two is relatively small.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(10)
   Maltodextrin price chart
   Maltodextrin shipment prices in March were stable and weak, mainly due to the continuous decline in the price of raw corn, the decline in costs, the decline in high prices in the market, and the general domestic demand, which dragged down the market transaction price. Affected by the production plan, the market Some large factories have limited production, and domestic inventories have not yet been under great pressure, supporting prices that are still high. Up to now, the shipping price of maltodextrin in Shandong is 4900-5100 yuan/ton, the shipping price in Hebei is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, and the shipping price in Jilin is 4900-5000 yuan/ton.
   operating rate analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(11)
  Starch sugar product operating rate trend chart
   As the market started gradually returning to normal in March, the number of operations increased significantly compared with February. The start of crystalline glucose this month was 48%, an increase of 16 percentage points from the previous month. In addition to the normal start of the market, the supply of raw corn was sufficient, which also led to a higher start of business. The operating rate of maltose syrup this month was 42%, an increase of 21 percentage points from the previous month, and the operating rate of fructose syrup was 49%, an increase of 23 percentage points from the previous month. The market started gradually returning to normal, but the terminal demand was average, and the overall start-up was difficult to reach a high level. , The recent low operation, the maltodextrin operating rate was 60%, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous month. With better profitability, the overall market operation is acceptable. Entering April, the downstream demand for starch sugars was off-season, and the manufacturers were selling poorly, and the overall start-up was weak.
  Profit analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(12)
   crystalline glucose profit chart
   Under the sufficient supply of raw materials in March, the overall start-up of the company was slightly higher. Recently, inventory has gradually increased, which has also suppressed prices. Up to now, the mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 3900-4250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price in Hebei is 3900- 4200 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price in Heilongjiang is 3850-3950 yuan/ton. Taking the average price of 4106 yuan/ton in the Shandong market as an example, the profit of crystalline glucose this month was 319 yuan/ton, which was a decline of 204 yuan/ton from the previous month.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(13)
  Maltose syrup profit trend chart
   As of the end of the month, the shipping price of 75%maltose syrup in Shandong is 3070-3450 yuan/ton, the shipping price of 75%maltose syrup in Hebei is 3070-3150 yuan/ton, and the shipping price in Jilin is 3200-3300 yuan/ton. The shipping price of 75%maltose syrup in South China is 3500-3700 yuan/ton. In terms of product profit, as prices fell, corporate profits were compressed, and profits fell from the previous period. Based on the Shandong market price of 3,292 yuan/ton, 75%of the maltose syrup profit this month was 193 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s profit fell 12 yuan/ton from the previous month. The lowest price in Shandong has exceeded 3100 yuan/ton, and the low price is basically unprofitable.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(14)
  Fructose syrup profit chart
  From the perspective of the substitution relationship with white sugar, based on the domestic average price of white sugar at 5290 yuan/ton, the price difference between white sugar and fructose syrup is 368 yuan/ton, the price of fructose syrup is high, and the price of white sugar fluctuates at a low level. The short-term price difference between the two is relatively large. small. The profit of fructose syrup improved this month, mainly due to the decline in the price of raw corn, lower costs, and the increase in fructose syrup profits. According to monitoring, the average profit of F55 fructose syrup this month is 121 yuan/ton based on the Shandong market at 3,600 yuan/ton. , Earnings increased by RMB 56/ton from the previous month.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(15)
   Maltodextrin profit chart
   Up to now, the shipping price of maltodextrin in Shandong is 4900-5100 yuan/ton, the shipping price in Hebei is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, and the shipping price in Jilin is 4900-500 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have fallen. The company’s quotation is high and the overall profitability is good. According to monitoring, based on the Shandong market at 4962 yuan/ton, the average profit of maltodextrin this month is 750 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous month.
  Remarks:All product profit accounting does not deduct equipment depreciation, financial expenses, and management expenses.
   starch sugar substitute
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(16)
  Comparison of the price difference between sugar and F55 fructose syrup
   The sugar market fell in March. On the one hand, it was dragged down by the decline in raw sugar futures. On the other hand, the spot market was experiencing strong supply and demand. Southern production has not yet ended. The sugar industry inventory was high year-on-year, and imports increased in January and February. The market sentiment is suppressed by volume, the downstream food industry demand is off-season, and the market is slower. In March, the spot price of white sugar fell by about 150 yuan/ton. At present, Guangxi market offers 5240-5360 yuan/ton, Yunnan market offers 5180-5260 yuan/ton, northern processed sugar offers 5360-5450 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia beet sugar is about 5250 yuan/ton. The sales area port Guangxi sugar is 5400-5450 yuan/ton, Guangxi sugar in central China is 5530-5650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan sugar in southwestern region is about 5380 yuan/ton.
   In April, the southern sugar factory entered the end of production, and the number of new sugars on the market decreased, but the industrial inventory was still at a high level. Coupled with imported processed sugar, the market supply was abundant; on the demand side, as the weather turns hot, consumer demand for cold drinks will increase As a result, the overall demand for the sugar market in April is expected to be better than that in March. On the whole, it is expected that the fundamentals of sugar supply and demand in April will be slightly better than that in March, and considering the cost support, it is expected that sugar prices will not continue to fall, and there may be a slight increase in the middle and late ten days.
  3.3

   Alcohol
  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(17)
  95%alcohol price chart
  The trend of cassava ethanol in East China went down in March. In the first half of the month, price fluctuations in East China were relatively flat, and the operating load rate increased significantly this month. Lianhai and Longhe in East China have resumed production successively, and the pressure is relatively low due to the execution of contracts in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, the willingness to ship shipments of various factories increased significantly. Due to the slowdown in demand and lower automobile freight rates, after the price was lowered in the Northeast, the price in East China was not high. The market outlook was not confident and the profit was large. The factory also intends to make a profit in time. The cassava ethanol plant in East China is relatively large in volume, and the decline accelerated in the second half of the year. Corn ethanol, the main port of East China, is not selling fast. Because the price of cassava ethanol in the surrounding area is low, holders are actively shipping, and some are at risk of loss. Approximately 2,000 tons of Vietnamese goods will be delivered within this month. Due to the increase in freight and detention fees during the month, the profit of cassava ethanol declined compared with February, and the unloading of raw materials at the port was congested. As of the close on March 31, the average price of 95%cassava ethanol in northern Jiangsu this month was 7,083 yuan/ton including tax, which was 42 yuan/ton lower than the average price of the previous month, or 0.57%, and the cumulative monthly decline was 325 yuan/ton.
  Maize ethanol The trend of corn ethanol in March is relatively passive, cost relief is limited, production is at a loss, demand is affected, and prices are falling. In the first half of the month, prices in Jilin remained at a stalemate, making it difficult to deliver goods. Inventories of various factories showed a growth state. In the second half of the year, the factories gradually showed their intention to ship. However, cassava ethanol in East China was also lowered quickly. Corn ethanol did not improve significantly. The level is higher. The trend of Henan corn ethanol was relatively stable in the first and middle ten days. Some plants were not operating normally, and there was demand from outside the province to the car. In the second ten days of this month, due to the increase in supply this month, the demand was not good, and other producing areas also fell. The factory lowered prices. . At the end of the month, Shandong corn ethanol prices also declined due to the increase in factory shipment willingness. As of the close on March 31, the average price of 95%corn ethanol in Jilin area this month was 7272 yuan/ton including tax, an increase of 230 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous month, an increase of 3.27%, and a cumulative monthly decline of 325 yuan/ton.
   In terms of molasses ethanol, the market price in Guangxi fell during the month. This month, Guangxi sugar mills continued to squeeze more than 70 companies at the end of the month. The price of molasses remained high around the Spring Festival. The price of molasses continued to rise in March, and the season came to an end. In mid-to-early March, the start-up load of molasses ethanol was high, downstream demand was flat, and ethanol inventory accumulation increased significantly. In addition, wheat corn ethanol and cassava ethanol generally declined in South China. High-priced molasses ethanol shipments were not smooth, and the price trend deviated from molasses, and the loss range was After repeated upgrades, manufacturers also showed resistance to continuing to purchase raw materials. The molasses ethanol plant ushered in a wave of shutdowns in the second half of the month. By the end of the month, the Guangxi Baichen, Wanwei, Fengtang and Jinqianwan plants had been shut down. The price trend in Yunnan is relatively stable. The supply of molasses ethanol is dominated by pre-sale orders. However, as the price rises, the shipments of manufacturers have slowed down. As of the close on March 31, the average price of 95%molasses ethanol in Guangxi this month was 7,297 yuan/ton including tax, which was an increase of 21 yuan/ton or 0.28%from the previous month’s average price, and a cumulative monthly decline of 100 yuan/ton.
   operating rate analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(18)
   Corn alcohol availability trend chart

   China’s 95%ethanol supply statistics in the past two months
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(19)< br/>
  Data source:Zhuochuang Information
   China’s edible and industrial ethanol production was 588,200 tons in March, up 31.95%from the previous month. China’s ethanol operating load rate was 43.68%in March, an increase of 8.57 percentage points from the previous month.
  3.4

   MSG
  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(20)
   MSG price chart
   The MSG market price consolidated at a high level in March, and the weakening of raw material prices triggered a wait-and-see mentality in the industry. Although there are expectations for the dual control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, the actual impact on the market price of MSG is limited. Various demand weakened in March and the MSG price was high. In order to avoid risks, downstream orders were not actively signed, and upstream inventories were accumulated and concentrated. As of March 31, the mainstream transaction price of 40-mesh large-package monosodium glutamate refers to 8850-9050 yuan/ton, and there are not many transactions above 9100 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is related to the transportation distance; the terminal price is 225-230 yuan/bag ( 25 kg/bag).
  Operation rate analysis
   The average operating load in the industry in March was 73.3%, a decrease of 0.5%from February. This month, the dual control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia has imposed certain restrictions on the start of construction of leading enterprises in the region. Industry inventories are relatively concentrated, estimated to be around 180,000 tons. Companies are becoming more enthusiastic about shipments and intend to increase inventory flows. In the second quarter, there is an overhaul plan for the Zhalantun plant. It is expected that the MSG industry will not rebound significantly in April.
  Profit analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(21)
   MSG profit trend chart
  Without hedging by-products, the loss of Zhalantun Fufeng in March improved compared with February, mainly because the price of finished MSG continued to rise, while the price of raw corn fell, which led to a slight relief of cost pressure. The average transaction price of 40-mesh large-package MSG this month was 9040.3 yuan/ton, up 3.2%from the previous month; the average monthly purchase price of corn for MSG companies in Zhalantun area this month was 2722 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous month ; The average price of 5,700 kcal thermal coal of the manufacturer was 468 yuan/ton, which was stable from last month; the average purchase price of edible light alkali was 1600 yuan/ton, which was stable from last month; the average purchase price of sulfuric acid was 347 yuan/ton, which was higher than last month. The monthly increase was 81.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the MSG company was 8009.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2%from the previous month; the net profit of the unhedged by-product manufacturer was 282.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 414.6 yuan/ton from the previous month. At present, corporate profits mainly rely on by-product hedging.
  3.5

  citric acid
  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(22)
   citric acid price chart
   The quotations of upstream manufacturers continued to increase at a high level in March. At present, the subjective attitudes of the acid companies are consistent and support the bottom price of the citric acid market. However, the corn price continued to fall in March, and the cost reduction has caused the terminal to resist high prices. New orders are generally followed up, and the focus of transactions on the floor is slowly moving up. Let’s take a look at the operation of the citric acid market this month. In terms of supply, as the supply of corn prices in North China increased and prices fell, upstream manufacturers’ raw material inventories were replenished, and local manufacturers with limited start-ups ensured optimal production costs and increased production. The industry supply increased month-on-month, and the start-up increased steadily. In terms of demand, in the domestic market, this month is in the off-season for food and beverage demand, terminal consumption is limited, and due to the continuous weakening of raw material prices, the overall purchase and sales of the market are weak; in terms of exports, the acid market prices have increased significantly after the holiday. In addition, most foreign trade customers have already completed intensive replenishment, and now they are implementing more pre-orders, focusing on digesting inventory. Recently, new orders in the foreign trade market are generally followed up, which has limited effect on the market. According to the data, as of March 31, the mainstream ex-factory price of citric acid monohydrate in Shandong is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of anhydrous citric acid is 7500-7600 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of sodium citrate is referenced. 7100-7200 yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation has been raised by 300 yuan/ton from the end of February, and the quotation in Jiangsu is slightly higher. There is a certain room for negotiation in the transaction, and there are certain differences between manufacturers according to the order situation and regional transaction prices.

   operating rate analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(23)
  citric acid operating rate trend chart
   The start of the citric acid industry in March showed an upward trend. As the temperature rebounded, the northeast land corn was sold intensively, the market supply increased, and a large amount of northeast China flowed into the North China market, the market centralized supply increased, and deep processing companies arrived in front of the door The increase in stocks has been replenished and the purchase price of corn has been lowered one after another. With sufficient supply of raw materials and reduced costs, low-end factories in the early stage have increased their operations to ensure optimal production and increased effective market supply. According to statistics, the monthly start of the industry in March was 71.01%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 1.25 percentage points year-on-year.

  Profit analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(24)
   citric acid profit chart
  From the above figure, it can be seen that the profit trend of citric acid continued to increase in March, and the industry’s profitability has expanded. Looking at this month, the main reason for the continued improvement in this month’s profitability is that the price of finished citric acid continues to rise. In addition, the price of raw corn continued to decrease in March, and the production cost decreased. Under the dual effect, the profitability of the citric acid industry continued. Change for the better. Let’s take a look at the operation of related products this month. According to statistics, the average monthly price of corn purchased by a citric acid plant in Weifang in March refers to 3079.10 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.61%and a year-on-year increase of 55.61%; the monthly average price of sulfuric acid refers to 353.98 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31.29%, year-on-year An increase of 23.045%; this month, the production cost of the citric acid company refers to 6411.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 45.14%. In terms of by-products, according to statistics, the monthly average price of citric acid residue this month is 2374.19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.59%month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 25.67%; after hedging the by-products, statistics show that the monthly profit of citric acid in Shandong in March was 1,185.32 yuan/ton. , A month-on-month increase of 447.4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 1114.3 yuan/ton. (The production cost of citric acid is calculated based on the consumption of 1.7 tons of corn for 1 ton of citric acid. This calculation only represents the editor’s personal opinion, in which the principle of higher raw materials and the lower profit of by-products are adopted, including labor costs, machine depreciation costs, storage costs, etc. ).
  3.6

  Lysine

  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(25)
  Lysine price chart
   The operating rate of the lysine industry this month was 53%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month. The supply of lysine increased, and manufacturers’ quotations became loose. Downstream demand is flat, traders are actively shipping, and market transactions are rational. According to customs statistics, the export volume of lysine ester and salt from January to February 2021 was 123,700 tons, an increase of 16,405 tons or 15.3%year-on-year. As of March 31, the average monthly price of 98%lysine was 11.7/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg month-on-month, or 0.85%; the average monthly price of 70%lysine was 5.9 yuan/kg, down month-on-month 0.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 4.8%.
  4

   Corn by-products

  4.1

  DDGS
  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(26)
  DDGS price chart
   This month (March 2021) the monthly average price of domestic high-fat DDGS closed at 2675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the February average price of 2722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73%from the previous month; compared with March 2020 The monthly average price was 1849 yuan/ton, an increase of 826 yuan/ton year-on-year, and the increase rate was 44.67%.
   In early March, domestic DDGS spot prices were running at a high level, downstream users concentrated on implementing replenishment contracts after the Spring Festival, and feed companies digested spot reserves. The impact of the African swine fever epidemic is gradually expanding, the market is intertwined with bad news, the terminal demand has decreased and adjusted, the industry has become bearish, the high spot price of DDGS is restricted, the willingness of alcohol companies to uphold the price is strong, and the market is enveloped in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere . With the widespread use of rice and wheat products, finished feed raw grain corn has been significantly affected by substitution. Feed companies comprehensively compare the costs of various raw materials. DDGS is at a cost-effective situation. Some manufacturers reduce the proportion of addition in the formula, and some are temporarily suspended.
  Because of the high cost of raw corn, the high price of main and by-products, alcohol companies have entered the price decline channel, and the pressure of production losses has gradually increased. Many factories have started price-setting operations. Among them, the main companies in the Northeast are particularly willing to hold the price. Although some manufacturers have implemented limited production operations, DDGS spot inventories have gradually increased, and some are facing pressure from expansion. Alcohol companies in Shandong, Henan and Anhui have lowered their quotations in response to the market and actively accepted new orders in order to relieve inventory pressure in a timely manner. Entering the end of March, DDGS prices in the production range increased continuously. The high-fat supply in Shandong took the lead to stop falling and stabilized. The industry waited for the guidance of the price bottom in Jilin and Heilongjiang, but a small number of manufacturers secretly lowered their orders for shipments, and some of them continued to be stable. price. At the same time, under the influence of high production and operation pressure, a small number of manufacturers in Heilongjiang implemented maintenance plans. DDGS carried over inventory reached more than 260,000 tons at the end of the month. Industry insiders have limited concerns about the reduction of DDGS supply in early April, and the market remains strong.
  According to statistics, as of today’s close, the mainstream price of high-fat DDGS in Jilin area is 2200-2660 yuan/ton; the price of corn and rice mixed distiller’s grains is 1950-2200 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of Heilongjiang high-fat DDGS is 2350-2500 yuan/ton; the price of low-fat DDGS is 2500-2550 yuan/ton, the main supplier contract. The price of low-fat grain distiller’s grains in Liaoning is 2,200 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of high-fat DDGS in Henan is 2400-2450 yuan/ton, and the price of grain distiller’s grains is 1950-2000 yuan/ton. The price of Hebei low-fat DDGS is 2600-2670 yuan/ton, and the price is based on quantity. Shandong high-fat DDGS price is 2400 yuan/ton. The price of high-fat DDGS in Anhui is 2350 yuan/ton. The price of high-fat DDGS in Sichuan is 2850-2900 yuan/ton. The price of high-fat DDGS in Inner Mongolia is 2380-2580 yuan/ton.
  Market forecast
   The average price of domestic DDGS is expected to fall first and then rise in April. The monthly average price of high-fat sources is about RMB 2,440/ton.
   Heilongjiang Wanli Runda and Hongzhan Biological Plants plan to start maintenance in early April. The time is 10-15 days. Youyi Hexing has stopped supplying materials on March 27, and the emerging biochemical manufacturers in Xinxiang, Henan will stop on March 26 . Taking into account the maintenance plans of other manufacturers, it is expected that the operating rate of the DDGS industry will fluctuate at a low level in April. The specific reference is about 34%. Due to the high level of DDGS companies carrying over inventories at the end of March, industry insiders have relatively limited concerns about parking for maintenance in mid-to-early April and the tightening of DDGS spot supply. Downstream users are waiting for the recovery of breeding demand in the middle and late quarters. Corn alcohol companies have different spot inventory pressures, some are actively taking orders at low prices, and some insisting on high-priced shipments.
  It is expected that domestic DDGS prices will continue to decline in the first half of April, and prices will rebound slightly in the middle to late April.

  4.2

   corn gluten meal, corn fiber

  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(27)
   corn gluten meal price chart
   The market price of corn gluten meal dropped significantly this month. On the one hand, the spot price of soybean meal was affected by the bearish demand of swine fever, and the price dropped significantly. Under this negative situation, the market price of corn gluten meal also fell. In addition, the price of protein meal was relatively high in February, and the demand was not good. Under the drag of panic, prices continued to fall from a high level, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere became stronger; third, the demand for poultry feed was not good, the enthusiasm for stocking was not high, and the market price of corn gluten meal continued to fall. According to statistics, the average domestic corn gluten meal price this month was 4467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 357 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous month, a decrease of 7.40%month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 5.70%.
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(28)< br/>
   corn fiber price chart
   This month, the price of sprayed corn fiber has been declining all the way. At the beginning of the month, the price of corn fiber was unfavorable due to the price of bran. However, as the price of bran stabilized, the price of corn fiber never stopped falling. It can be said that the price trend of corn fiber this month is basically out of the influence of the price trend of raw materials and substitute bran, while the price trend is affected by its own fundamental factors. The downstream demand is poor and the company’s corn fiber inventory is rising rapidly. It can be said that the current market pressure is mainly because the company’s inventory pressure is always difficult to release, and the price of corn fiber has dropped significantly. According to statistics, the average domestic corn fiber price this month was 1,724 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous month, a 12.89%month-on-month decrease and a year-on-year increase of 36.83%.

  Market forecast
   Corn gluten meal, fiber:The market price of corn by-products continues to fall. Although the decline has slowed recently, it has not stopped falling. From the perspective of market supply and demand fundamentals, on the supply side, due to the relatively high level of business operations, the short-term supply of by-products in the market will remain relatively sufficient. In particular, for corn fiber, some companies are experiencing inventory expansion, and short-term inventory pressure is difficult to release significantly. There is a greater possibility of price-for-quantity exchange in April. In terms of demand, the demand for poultry feed has increased slowly. Although the stocking of aquatic feed will gradually start, the overall support for the by-product market may be limited. It is expected that the supply and demand side of by-products in April will still maintain the contradiction of oversupply, and it is expected that the market price of by-products in April may still have room for downside.
  4.3

   corn oil, corn germ meal

  Market analysis
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(29)< br/>
   Corn oil price chart
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(30)< br/>
   Corn germ meal price trend chart
   The price of corn germ meal fell from a high level in March, and the range was obvious. Mainly due to poor terminal demand for feed and difficult delivery of germ meal; the price of related products, especially bran and corn fiber, has significantly weakened, which has a strong negative impact on the market, and the cost reduction caused by the decline in raw material germ prices. In March, the price of corn oil rose and fell. In the mid-to-early period, the price of raw material germ was high and the oil environment was strong. In addition, the oil factory was optimistic about the tight spot; the terminal demand was not good in the second half of the year, and the manufacturers were difficult to ship. The price weakened, the mentality of the manufacturers was suppressed to a certain extent, and the price began to fall from a high level. According to statistics, the average price of domestic first-class corn oil this month is about 12,082 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.98%month-on-month and 65.82%year-on-year; the average price of corn germ meal this month is about 1,924 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 13.10%, year-on-year An increase of 37.04%.
  Market forecast
  Corn oil, germ meal:The overall terminal demand for corn oil in April will hardly improve, and the manufacturers may be in an unsatisfactory state; and the overall operation of oil plants is good, and the supply of corn oil continues to increase, which intensifies the contradiction between supply and demand in the market; the oil market The overall market is weak, so corn oil prices are expected to be weak next month. In April, the terminal demand for feed may continue to be sluggish, and the overall delivery of germ meal is unlikely to improve significantly; the market for feed ingredients is weak, laying a weak tone for germ meal. Therefore, it is expected that germ meal may weaken overall next month.
  5

   Outlook forecast

  5.1

  corn
  Favourable factors:the grassroots surplus has bottomed out, and the land-based grain sales have ended; some traders have higher corn purchase costs.
  Negative factors:terminal demand is sluggish and feed companies receive less goods; by-product losses drag deep processing and continue to buy corn at a lower price; more imported corn is bad for domestic corn prices.
   Spot forecast:It is expected that the national corn price will continue to decline in April, and the overall price may fall first and then stabilize. At present, the phased supply of corn in the Northeast is still relatively sufficient, while the downstream feed demand continues to be weak, and the number of days of deep processing inventory continues to increase. Next month, the Northeast corn market is in a sluggish atmosphere, and there is still room for continued decline in prices. After a continuous decline this month, the willingness of grassroots traders to hold up prices has gradually increased. The tide grains in the northeast have been consumed, and the market’s negative factors have weakened. At present, prices in Northeast and North China are basically compliant, and the inflow of grain sources in Northeast China is relatively smooth. Therefore, the impact of price on the arrival of deep processing enterprises is relatively obvious. It is expected that the price of corn in North China will continue to fall next month. There will be limited room for corn prices to continue to fall. After the decline has stabilized, the range will be maintained within a narrow range. Adjust the situation. The southern region is restricted by the sluggish demand, as well as the squeeze of substitutes and imported corn, the trend of low domestic corn sales is still difficult to change. It is expected that the southern corn price will continue to decline with the production areas next month, and pay attention to the company’s purchase intentions for corn.
  5.2

   corn starch
  In terms of raw materials:It is expected that the national corn price will continue to decline in April, and the overall price may fall first and then stabilize. At present, the phased supply of corn in the Northeast is still relatively sufficient, while the downstream feed demand continues to be weak, and the number of days of deep processing inventory continues to increase. Next month, the Northeast corn market is in a sluggish atmosphere, and there is still room for continued decline in prices. At present, prices in Northeast and North China are basically compliant, and the inflow of grain sources in Northeast China is relatively smooth. Therefore, the impact of price on the arrival of deep processing enterprises is relatively obvious. It is expected that the price of corn in North China will continue to fall next month. There will be limited room for corn prices to continue to fall. After the decline has stabilized, the range will be maintained within a narrow range. Adjust the situation.
   On the supply side:The operating rate of the corn starch industry may have been reduced in a narrow range in April, mainly because since March, corn starch enterprises have been affected by the sharp contradiction between supply and demand, and the price has been continuously reduced. The processing profit has turned from profit to loss. Enthusiasm has declined. In particular, some companies in the North China market were affected by losses, and their operating load may be reduced within a narrow range.
   In terms of downstream demand:In April, the downstream market was mainly on the wait-and-see attitude, and the procurement was basically based on rigid replenishment. However, due to the loss of processing profits of corn starch enterprises, the enthusiasm to start operations has declined, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has begun to ease, and the downstream market’s willingness to purchase at low prices may increase, but overall, high-priced demand is still insufficient.
   In the short term, the domestic corn starch spot market may maintain a weakening trend, but the decline in low-end prices will gradually slow down. Considering that the prices of main and by-products of deep-processing enterprises have weakened together, operating pressure has doubled, and losses have continued to increase, which will limit the decline in spot prices to a certain extent. On the other hand, after the corn price continued to fall in March, the willingness of grassroots traders to keep the price gradually increased, and the negative factors in the corn market weakened. It is expected that the price drop of corn starch in the spot market in April will gradually slow down, and the overall trend may start to decline and then stabilize.
  5.3

   Starch Sugar
   The raw material market continued to be weak in March, resulting in a strong air atmosphere in the starch sugar market, poor downstream procurement, and overall pressure on delivery. Under the company’s bidding for shipments, the transaction price fell. Entering April, the forecast for each product is as follows:
Monthly analysis report of corn deep processing industry in March 2021image(31)
  5.4

   Alcohol
   95%ethanol market outlook:East China prices are expected to stabilize after a slow decline in April, and market demand will not rebound as much as supply. The market supply and demand side is still trying to balance in April, and cassava ethanol profits are gradually compressed. At present, arbitrage from Northeast to East China is still difficult, price competition in the main producing areas exists, and shipment intentions are expected to remain under the condition of high inventory. The cost of raw materials in the Northeast is high. There are still 2-3 plants planned to shut down in April, and downstream demand is expected to rise slowly. However, based on the current plant operation plan, the overall supply pressure in the market will still exist in mid-to-early April, and demand is still pending Get better. In terms of molasses ethanol, the supply of raw material molasses is still tight. The molasses ethanol plant has been shut down in late March. The inventory is expected to decrease in April. However, the prices of other cassava and wheat corn ethanol in the surrounding area are weak, and molasses ethanol is expected to be narrow. Disk-based.
  5.5

   MSG
   Market status:The average operating load in the industry in March was 73.3%. Affected by policy orientation and high costs, enterprises are restricted from operating, industry inventories are relatively concentrated, and upstream shipments are becoming more enthusiasm. Due to fluctuations in the price of raw corn, coupled with poor shipments, downstream merchants have a lot of speculation about the future trend. In order to reduce capital occupation and effectively avoid risks, they are more inclined to maintain low inventory levels.
   Outlook forecast:In terms of raw materials, the national corn price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the overall price may fall first and then stabilize. At present, the phased supply of corn in the Northeast is still relatively sufficient, while the downstream feed demand continues to be weak. At present, prices in the Northeast and North China are basically compliant, and the inflow of grain sources in Northeast China is relatively smooth. It is expected that the price of corn in North China will continue to fall next month. In terms of industry supply, the dual control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia in March has a certain impact on the start of the MSG industry, but there is no clear node for the production limit. In April, there is an overhaul plan for the Zhalantun plant. It is estimated that the industry will still not rebound in April. Supply pressure is expected to be eased. In terms of industry demand, April-May is still the off-season of conventional demand. The downstream replenishment level and consumption level have slightly declined compared with before the Spring Festival, and the market digestion is low. Upstream companies have different mentalities. Some consider cost pressures and industry restrictions to achieve a new balance of supply and demand. They are relatively active; some tend to shift the shipment pressure caused by weakening demand and shift inventory. Comprehensive cost, supply and demand, and upstream and downstream mentality, the MSG market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in a narrow range in April, and multiple mentality will work together to affect the market. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the start of enterprises.
  5.6

  citric acid
   Market status:This month, the citric acid market has been operating steadily and on the strong side. The main upstream manufacturers have maintained the same mentality and have a strong intention to sell at a higher price. This has helped the citric acid companies continue to increase their quotations. However, in March, the price of raw corn fluctuated and fell, cost support weakened, and terminal purchases were cautious. New orders signed in the market were generally followed up, and high prices in the pressured market were slow to follow up. Recent transactions on the market are still based on real orders.
   Market outlook forecast:It is expected that the market price of citric acid will consolidate at a high level in April, and the price increase and decrease will be limited. At present, the upstream manufacturers have maintained the same mentality, and as the downstream low-price orders are gradually digested, the transactions of new replenishment orders are steadily following up, which has certain support for the bottom price of citric acid. However, the current raw material prices continue to be weak, the cost support is weakened, and the terminal high prices are resisting, and the market price of citric acid has been suppressed to a certain extent. So on the whole, it is expected that the short-term citric acid market will run in a stalemate. Focus on the follow-up of downstream demand and the price trend of raw corn.
  5.7

  Lysine
   This month (March 2021), the average domestic hog price has increased first and then decreased. According to monitoring, the average price of foreign three yuan slaughter was 27.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.13%month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 23.88%. From January to March, the average price of foreign three yuan was 30.96 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 16.99%. Among the four regions currently counted, the lowest is the Northeast Region at 21.86 yuan/kg, and the highest is the South China Region at 26.77 yuan/kg. The positive boost is insufficient, and the domestic pig price is trending up and down this month. At the beginning of this month, the northern part encountered a wide range of rain and snow, and the resistance of live pig transportation increased, which triggered bullish sentiment on the breeding side, which led to a strong increase in pig prices. However, due to the difficulty of terminal consumption to follow up, the prices of southern and northern pigs experienced a short rise and then their high prices fell. Moreover, as the price of pigs continued to drop, the psychological line of defense of the breeding units was defeated. In the market, the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified. As of the end of the month, the trend of deep decline in pig prices has not stopped. There is little resistance in the acquisition of butcher companies, and the completion of the monthly plan of the group’s pig farm is slow. As of March 31, the average price of three yuan outside the country was 27.64 yuan/kg.
  The supply of lysine is normal, and the manufacturer’s price is loose. Corn prices continued to fall, and lysine cost support weakened. The current market demand is flat, and downstream replenishment is rational. Traders are cautious and wait and see, the operating space is average, and the transaction tends to be flat. According to market news, some manufacturers may resume production in April, and the market supply may increase by then. In the short term, the market has high bearish sentiment, and it is expected that the price of lysine may fall in April.