Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industry
By: Date: 2021-04-10 Categories: industrynews Tags: ,
   Banana is rich in a variety of trace elements, vitamins and soluble fiber. It has the characteristics of rich nutrition, short growth cycle and quick output. It is a characteristic variety that promotes poverty alleviation and income increase of farmers in tropical and subtropical regions and promotes the revitalization of rural industries. Bananas are also a characteristic poverty alleviation variety in my country’s”three regions and three states” deep poverty areas, and are planted in Liangshan Prefecture and Nujiang Prefecture (sporadic cultivation). my country is the world’s second largest producer and consumer of bananas, second only to India. Bananas are the tropical and subtropical fruit with the largest trade volume in the world and the most extensively involved in trading countries and regions. There are more than 130 countries growing bananas in the world, and Asia is the world’s largest banana production and consumption area. Latin America is the world’s main banana export region, accounting for about 3/4 of the world’s exports. In order to understand the development of the banana industry in my country, the Institute of Information of the Chinese Academy of Thermal Sciences was commissioned to set up a special research group to conduct a comprehensive investigation and analysis of the banana industry through on-site investigations, telephone interviews, and expert discussions. As a characteristic advantageous agricultural product in my country’s tropical and subtropical regions, bananas have played an important role in increasing farmers’ incomes and industrial poverty alleviation. From 2009 to 2019, the development of my country’s banana industry fluctuated and adjusted. In recent years, the scale of planting and production have shown a downward trend; bananas are mainly consumed by fresh food, and the consumption is greater than the output; the annual supply of bananas, the purchase price of the origin in recent years, the overall market has been improving. Retail prices tend to rise; imports continue to grow, and the trade deficit further expands. It is expected that in the next five years, the scale and output of bananas in my country will tend to decline, the industry will transform to high-quality development, the market supply of high-quality bananas will increase, and the amount of intensive processing will gradually develop.
  1. Current status of banana industry development

   (1) Production
   1. In recent years, the harvested area and yield have decreased year by year. From 2009 to 2019, the banana harvest area in my country was more than 5 million mu. Since 2015, the banana harvest area and yield have shown a downward trend year by year. Affected by the typhoon in 2014, the harvested area in the main production area decreased by 880,000 mu, and the supply of bananas was in short supply, which stimulated the enthusiasm of banana farmers to expand planting. In 2015, the harvested area and output reached the highest value of 6.14 million mu and 12.47 million tons in the past decade. In the past two years, due to the high incidence of banana wilt disease, high production costs, and the impact of competitive land use by other cash crops, the market has been better, but the harvested area and yield have decreased (Figure 1).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage
  Figure 1 2009-2019 China’s banana harvest area and yield changes

  Data source:National Bureau of Statistics

  2. The area and output of the main production areas have declined, and the cultivated categories and varieties have become the same.
   (1) The planting area and yield of each main producing area showed a downward trend to varying degrees. Bananas in my country are mainly distributed in provinces (regions) such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, and Taiwan. From 2009 to 2018, the planting area of ​​bananas in my country’s main producing areas showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In 2019, the planting area of ​​main banana production areas in my country decreased slightly compared with 2018, among which Guangxi and Yunnan production areas decreased relatively more (Figure 2).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(1)
   Figure 2 2009-2018 China’s main banana production area changes in planting area

  Data source:National Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of Land Reclamation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
   From 2009 to 2018, the output of my country’s five major banana producing areas, Guangdong ranked first, Guangxi mostly maintained second, Yunnan mostly maintained third, Hainan dropped from second to fourth in 2009, Fujian has been Ranked fifth (Figure 3).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(2)
  Figure 3 2009-2018 China’s main banana production area production changes

  Data source:National Bureau of Statistics
  The output of my country’s five major banana producing areas has always accounted for more than 90%of the country’s total output. In 2018, it accounted for 99%. The output of the five major production areas in the country accounted for Guangdong (31.3%), Guangxi (27.3%), Yunnan (22.2%), Hainan (10.5%), Fujian (8.6%) (Figure 4).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(3)
  Figure 4 Proportion of the output of China’s main banana producing areas in 2018

  Data source:National Bureau of Statistics
   (2) The main varieties of the main production areas are the same, forming dominant production areas in different seasons. With the development of banana industrialization, in addition to the local characteristics of Tianbao bananas in Fujian production areas, the main varieties and varieties of major production areas have converged. In recent years, the main cultivated varieties are fragrant (bud) bananas and plantains. Bud) The main banana varieties are Brazil, Nantianhuang, Guijiao No. 1, Yueyoukang No. 1, etc., and the main plantain varieties are Fenjiao. Through the continuous adjustment of the banana industry, a dominant autumn production area based on Guangxi and Fujian has been formed, a winter dominant production area based on Yunnan, and a summer dominant production area based on Hainan and Guangdong have been formed.
  (2) Consumption
  1. Consumption is affected by production, and it is listed on the anniversary, mainly fresh food. Bananas are the fourth largest fruit in my country after apples, citrus, and pears. From 2009 to 2019, my country’s banana market developed steadily, with annual consumption exceeding 9 million tons. The highest and lowest values ​​were 12.83 million tons in 2015 and 9.09 million tons in 2014. Consumption generally fluctuates with the output of the year (Figure 5). ).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(4)
  Figure 5 2009-2019 China’s total banana consumption changes

  Data source:calculated based on public information
  In the past ten years, my country’s annual per capita banana consumption has exceeded 6.50 kg, with the highest value being 9.34 kg in 2015 and the lowest value being 6.65 kg in 2014 (Figure 6).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(5)
  Figure 6 Changes in per capita consumption of bananas in China in 2009-2019

  Data source:Zhuochuang Information
   2. Low consumption in high temperature seasons, high consumption in low temperature seasons. The off-peak season of banana consumption is very obvious. The off-season is generally summer, and the peak season is autumn, winter and spring. Consumers with high temperatures in summer usually buy summer fruits such as watermelons and peaches. Banana consumption is only 30 to 40%of the peak consumption. In autumn, winter and spring, the temperature drops, and there are fewer fruits, which enters the traditional peak season for consumption. In recent years, traditional festivals have played a smaller role in driving the market. Banana is a very alternative and popular fruit. If the price of banana runs at a high level and exceeds consumers’ psychological expectations, consumers will reduce their purchases of bananas.

   (3) Processing and circulation
   1. Mainly fresh food, the processing rate is less than 10%. At present, my country has not yet formed a banana deep processing industrial system. More than 90%of bananas are eaten directly, and the deep processing rate is very low. Most of the processing is dried bananas. my country’s banana deep processing industry is not developing fast, but the prospects are huge. Banana integrates multiple nutritional functions. It can be made into banana chips, fruit juice, fruit vinegar, and fruit wine. After special processing, banana natural resistant starch can be obtained. It is rich in oligosaccharides, pectin, dietary fiber, high potassium, high calcium, and high magnesium. , Vitamins, amino acids and polyphenols and other functional substances.
   2. The overall circulation is running well, but there are many circulation links. Due to the small and scattered production pattern of banana production in my country, and the lack of independent brands, except for a few large banana planting companies directly supplying large fruit distributors, chain supermarkets, etc., most growers mainly supply to agencies (distributors) Entrusting local agents to purchase) has not only increased the circulation links, but the purchase price is often lowered, and the profit margin of banana farmers has been compressed.

   (four) import and export
   1. Imported bananas occupy the mid to high-end market, and more than half of the imports come from the Philippines. From 2009 to 2019, my country’s banana imports showed an overall increasing trend (Figure 7). Imported bananas are favored by more and more consumers due to their high quality, occupying the middle and high-end consumer market in my country. The shortage of domestic banana supply in 2019 has stimulated the imported banana market to a certain extent.
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(6)
  Figure 7 2009-2019 China banana import volume changes

  Data source:China Customs
   The top three sources of banana imports in my country in 2019 are the Philippines, Ecuador, and Vietnam. The imports were 1.033 million tons (53.3%), 459,000 tons (23.7%), and 278,000 tons (23.7%). Than 14.3%) (Figure 8).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(7)
  Figure 8 Major sources of China’s banana imports in 2019

  Data source:China Customs
  2. Exports continue to grow, but the total amount is small. Domestic bananas are mainly for domestic consumption. At the same time, due to their high production costs and low quality as a whole, the export volume is not large. Banana exports are mainly for Hong Kong, Macao and several neighboring countries. The low value of my country’s banana exports from 2015 to 2019 was 7,600 tons in 2015, and the highest value was 23,300 tons in 2019. The main export countries and regions of my country’s bananas in 2019 are Hong Kong, North Korea, Mongolia, Macau, Russia, etc.
  (5) Market price
   1. The purchase price of the production area fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall situation was positive. From 2015 to 2019, the monthly purchase price of banana production areas in my country is generally in constant fluctuations and adjustments. Among them, the purchase price of production areas in 2015-2017 was relatively sluggish, falling below 1 yuan/kg. In 2018-2019, the monthly purchase price of banana production areas is generally good, all are above 1 yuan/jin, and the fluctuation range is relatively small, mostly between 1-2 yuan/jin, which will bring considerable profit and stable market expectations to banana farmers , Increased the confidence of banana farmers (Figure 9).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(8)
   Figure 9 2015-2019 China’s main banana production areas monthly purchase price changes

  Data source:Zhuochuang Information
  2. The main production areas are listed on a staggered peak, and the purchase prices of the production areas are all on the cost line. In the past two years, different main producing areas have formed different peak listing times, avoiding centralized listings and causing prices to fall. In 2019, my country’s banana market is generally better, and the purchase prices of origins are all at the cost line (0.8-1 yuan/kg) the above. The average price of bananas in the main producing areas is above 1 yuan/jin. The annual highest price was 2.13 yuan/jin at the end of August, and the lowest price was 1.08 yuan/jin at the end of July (Figure 10).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(9)
   Figure 10 Time to market and monthly purchase price changes in major banana producing areas in China in 2019

  Data source:Zhuochuang Information
  3. The market wholesale market is improving, but the price fluctuates greatly. From 2016 to 2019, the wholesale prices of major banana wholesale markets were 3-6 yuan/kg, and the average annual wholesale prices were 4.44 yuan/kg, 4.23 yuan/kg, 5.1 yuan/kg, and 5.2 yuan/kg. In 2016-2018, the wholesale price of the banana market was good, but the price fluctuated greatly. In 2019, the wholesale price of the banana market was relatively good and stable (Figure 11).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(10)
  Figure 11 China’s banana market wholesale price changes from 2016 to 2019 from 1 to 12

  Data source:National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System
  (6) Cost benefit
   1. Frequent land exchange for planting leads to high costs. There are significant differences in costs and benefits between different regions, different varieties, first-generation bananas (newly planted bananas) and second-generation bananas (bananas grown in the second year after leaving buds). Taking the cost and benefit of Brazilian bananas grown in Hainan production areas in 2019 as an example, the production costs of the first and second generation bananas are 43 yuan/plant and 30 yuan/plant, respectively. About 160-180 plants are planted per mu in Hainan banana garden. Based on 170 plants, the cost per mu of first-generation and second-generation bananas is about RMB 7,310 and RMB 5,100, respectively. Based on an average yield of 25 kilograms per plant, the average purchase price in 2019 is 3.3 yuan/kg, and the profit per mu of banana generation is about 6715 yuan (Table 1). In order to prevent bananas from infecting soil-borne diseases and fusarium wilt, many growers generally replace their land after two years of planting. This results in frequent replacement of banana planting land in my country, increasing land rent, leveling, seedling, labor, and management costs, resulting in the cost of banana production in my country. High.
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(11)
  2. Staggered listing is the key guarantee for income, and the price of imported bananas affects the price of domestic bananas. Staggered listings are considered by the industry to be the key to avoiding the risks and returns of the”bad market”. Natural risks such as typhoons, fusarium wilt, and frost and uncertain factors such as disease risks still exist. In recent years, domestic and imported bananas have risen and fallen at the same time, and the price of imported bananas has also become an important factor affecting the income of domestic bananas.
  3. The average export price is much higher than the global average and other countries. From 1990 to 2018, the average export price of bananas in key countries around the world showed an upward trend. Among them, the average export price of bananas in my country fluctuated and increased the most, which was much higher than the global average and the average export prices of bananas in other countries. In 2018, the global average export price of bananas was US$0.54/kg, while the average export price of my country’s bananas was US$0.97/kg, which is about 2.2 times that of the Philippines. It does not have a competitive advantage in price (Figure 12).
Investigation and Analysis Report on my country’s Banana Market and Industryimage(12)
   Figure 12 Comparison of average export prices of bananas between my country, key countries and the world from 1990 to 2018

  Data source:FAO, ITC
   2. Prospects for the development of the banana industry

   (1) Production Outlook
   1. The production is relatively stable, and the planting area has declined slightly. It is expected that the expansion of banana planting area in my country in 2020 will not be as good as the reduction of the area, and it may be slightly reduced compared to 2019, about 4.1 million mu.
   2. The industry is facing transformation, upgrading and adjustment, and ecological planting has become a trend. Due to the impact of superimposed factors such as competition from imported bananas, strong demand for green consumption, and bottlenecks in sustainable land use, it has become the consensus of growers to continuously improve the quality of bananas. In the future, ecological banana planting will become a trend, and the promotion and use of green technology and high-efficiency organic bacterial fertilizer will become more common. .
   (2) Consumer Outlook
   1. Consumption will continue to remain stable. my country’s banana market has entered a relatively stable period. It is expected that my country’s banana consumption in 2020 will not be much different from 2019, at about 9.6 million tons. The annual per capita consumption is expected to remain at around 7.0-7.5 kg.
   2. Imported bananas will still occupy the mid- to high-end consumer market for a long time. It is expected that imported bananas will still mainly occupy the mid-to-high-end market in 2020, but the market share of domestic premium bananas will increase steadily.
   (3) Trade Outlook
  1. The source of imports is still mainly Southeast Asia and Latin America. It is expected that in the future, my country’s banana imports will continue to be mainly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, but the import sources will be more diversified. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, as well as Costa Rica and other Latin American countries will increase their share of banana exports to my country.
  2. Export trade will continue to grow, but the total amount is small. my country’s bananas are relatively weak in competitiveness due to quality, brand, and production costs. It is expected that in 2020, my country’s banana export trade will continue to grow, but the increase is not large. The export volume is expected to be around 25,000 tons, and the export destination will not change much.
   3. The development of banana industry in poverty-stricken areas

   (1) Overall situation
   1. Outstanding performance in poverty alleviation and income increase. Most poverty-stricken areas are remote and difficult to transport. In the past, banana farmers in these areas used to eat and sell most of the bananas to nearby villages and towns, and the economic benefits were not obvious. At present, due to the strong consumer demand for high-quality agricultural products, the popularization of the Internet, and the convenience of logistics, the supply of the original ecologically grown agricultural products exceeds the demand, which has promoted the development of the local banana industry.
   2. A number of typical cases and models of poverty alleviation and income increase have emerged. From a regional perspective, there are the”Ceheng Model” in Guizhou, the”Jinsui Model” in Guangxi, the”Liangshan Model” in Sichuan, and the”Lingao Model” in Hainan. From the perspective of the form of production organization, there are”government + professional The main models include cooperatives + farmers”,”company + farmers”,”professional cooperatives + farmers”,”government + leading enterprises + farmers”,”e-commerce platform + professional cooperatives + farmers”, and”industrial demonstration parks + farmers”.

   (2) Main experience and practice
  1. The support of science and technology has greatly increased production and promoted large-scale and standardized planting. The support of science and technology has completely changed the past situation of small scale and low yield of bananas in poverty-stricken areas, as well as the unstable state of”relying on the sky”. Technology has injected strong and sustainable development power and guarantee for banana production in poverty-stricken areas, greatly improving Improved farmers’ standardized planting technology level.
   2. Introduce corporate investment to drive industrial development and increase farmers’ income. The injection of social capital such as enterprises provides financial guarantee for the development of banana industry in poverty-stricken areas, and solves the dilemma of poor households’ inability to invest in production. At the same time, the construction of enterprise processing and production lines extends the banana industry chain, increases the added value of bananas, and promotes The development of the industry has spurred the increase of local farmers’ income.
  3. Use”Internet +” to empower product value and sales. The use of developed Internet sales platforms and convenient logistics services has broadened the sales channels of bananas, enabling banana sales in poverty-stricken areas to overcome the situation of unsold and unsellable prices due to remote transportation. The promotion of ecological high-quality bananas has greatly improved the economic benefits of bananas.
   (3) Typical Case Analysis

  1. Case 1:Banana Industry Poverty Alleviation Practice in Ceheng County, Guizhou

   (1) Basic situation
   Ceheng County belongs to the Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture of Southwest Guizhou Province. It is a deeply impoverished county in the contiguous poverty-stricken areas of my country’s Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou stony desertification. The local cultivation of bananas (locally called”glutinous bananas”) has a history of hundreds of years. Limited by transportation location factors, backward planting technology and no capital investment, the original Ceheng banana planting was not large-scale. Since 2015, Ceheng has taken industrial adjustments as the goal, and through exploring the “government + e-commerce + cooperatives + farmers” model, the banana planting area has exceeded 80,000 mu, driving more than 4,600 households to plant bananas, driving local farmers’ income and promoting The regional economic development of Ceheng. On March 3, 2020, Ceheng County successfully withdrew from the poverty-stricken counties to achieve”poverty alleviation”.
   (2) Main measures and effects
  Invite experts to formulate industrial upgrading and transformation plans and take the path of ecological development. Water-saving irrigation facilities were designed according to local conditions, which improved the local banana industrial production technology level. Through the scientific application of high-efficiency organic fertilizers, the yield of bananas has been increased and the sustainable use of the land has been achieved, reducing the large-scale use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Set up an industrial company to carry out industrial layout and planning, and promote the standardized production of local bananas. Banana Industry Company established banana cooperatives in every banana planting village in the county to organize scattered banana farmers to achieve unified planning, unified technology, unified standards, unified brands, and unified sales. Promote the construction of demonstration parks with projects, and introduce advanced management planting techniques and high-quality and characteristic varieties. From the aspects of introduction and screening of fine varieties, seedling breeding, soil testing and fertilization, standardized management, storage and preservation, product processing, etc., the Guizhou high-quality green banana agricultural science and technology demonstration park has been built, driven by leading enterprises, and the implementation of”enterprise + scientific research + cooperative +” The”base + farmer” joint production model has greatly improved the degree of industrial organization. Introduce corporate investment to drive industrial development and increase farmers’ income. The introduction of Guizhou Fuheng Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. to invest 150 million yuan, the introduction of Guizhou Huashi Agricultural Technology Development Co., Ltd. to invest 40 million yuan, the introduction of Guizhou Lixian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. to invest more than 30 million yuan to establish a banana standard demonstration base and a series of deep processing plants to drive Local employment and income increase. Through brand building and”Internet +”, the realization of banana value and the docking of production and sales will be improved. It has registered trademarks such as”Ceheng County Nanbei Panjiang Jinzhao Banana” and”Ceheng County Nanbei Panjiang Nuomi Banana”; it has obtained the certification of pollution-free origin and the reputation of”Hometown of Chinese Glutinous Banana”. Through e-commerce platforms such as Qianyou Township, JD.com, Suning.com, Netease Koala, and e-commerce Cloud to Village, they are sold to all parts of the country and become”Internet celebrity bananas.” Raise funds through multiple channels, utilize media resources, and enhance industry influence. Ceheng County has successively strived for 9 million yuan for agricultural development funds from the central government, 9.64 million yuan for post-immigrant support funds, and 270 million yuan for industrial poverty alleviation funds to drive the masses to plant 80,000 mu of bananas, with a total annual output value of more than 320 million yuan. Through media reports, fruit wholesalers across the country have attracted widespread attention, and they have successively signed a large number of banana orders in the local area.
  2. Case 2:Guangxi”Golden Spike Model” drives farmers out of poverty and becomes rich

   (1) Basic situation
  Long’an County belongs to Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. It is dominated by the Zhuang nationality and is a state-level poverty-stricken county. Long’an has a long history of banana cultivation, but it is located in a minority area, the economy is underdeveloped, the banana production pattern is small and scattered, the degree of industrialization is low, banana farmers lack scientific and ecological planting concepts and technologies, and banana production is unstable. Guangxi Jinsui Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. is a national key leading enterprise in the industrialization of agriculture, which takes banana as its characteristic industry and integrates planting, seedling cultivation, bio-organic fertilizer, and deep processing. The company is committed to synchronizing poverty alleviation with development, building a banana industry chain, establishing an interest linkage mechanism with farmers, achieving a win-win situation for enterprises and farmers, and becoming a sample of poverty alleviation in Longan.
   (2) Main measures and results achieved
   Through land transfer, unified rent and subcontracting, the steady growth of farmers’ income will be promoted. After the company leases the transferred land, it builds a high-standard banana planting base with complete facilities, and then subcontracts it to farmers, who can obtain income from”land rent + contracted wages”. Form industrial alliances to expand the coverage of poverty alleviation assistance. Absorb small companies or large growers to join the industry alliance, through company subcontracting or farmers’ self-concentration of land, the company provides facilities, materials and services free of charge, standardized production in accordance with company regulations, and the two parties share a certain proportion. Innovate technology to enhance the”blood-making” function of poverty alleviation. The company established the Guangxi Jinsui Banana Industrial Technology Innovation Center. The banana base all adopts Israeli water and fertilizer automatic computer-controlled drip irrigation, pollution-free green production technology, and promotes the application of related technologies in the company base and surrounding rural areas, and cultivates a large number of planting experts and technology Farmers benefited more than 50,000 people. Build the entire banana industry chain and broaden the employment channels for farmers. The company has driven the development of local packaging, transportation, service and other related industries around the banana plantation industrial park, deep processing, trading industry, logistics, ecological park, etc., and indirectly created thousands of jobs in the surrounding areas.
  4. Problems and risks in industrial development

   (1) Main problem
   1. Frequent land replacement for planting affects the sustainable development of the industry. As a whole, the banana industry in my country adopts the”big fertilizer and water” planting model in pursuit of yield. Excessive use of chemical fertilizers and herbicides disrupts the soil microbial balance, leading to the spread of fusarium wilt. At present, there are no good control techniques and measures for banana fusarium wilt. Taking Brazilian banana varieties as an example, the incidence of fusarium wilt in second-generation bananas is usually about 30%, even if the disease-resistant variety Nantianhuang has an incidence of about 10%. The problem of multi-generation continuous cropping obstacles is prominent. Only through frequent land exchanges to reduce the occurrence of fusarium wilt, it is difficult for the industry to achieve green and high-quality development, which seriously affects the sustainable development of the industry.
   2. The production structure is small and scattered, and the degree of industrialization is not high. my country’s banana planting is mostly 100-300 mu, lacking large companies and leading enterprises to lead the development, and failing to organize small and scattered growers. Most growers have a strong sense of mutual competition, weak bargaining power, weak resistance to market risks, and weak integration and construction of the industrial chain.
  3. Imported bananas have obvious advantages and have a greater impact on the price of domestic bananas. Imported bananas have obvious advantages in quality and price, highlighting the contradiction between the strong demand for high-quality bananas in the domestic consumer market and the inability of domestic banana production to meet the demand. On the surface, imported bananas look similar to domestic bananas. Once they are ripened, their quality will rise and fall. In recent years, the price of imported bananas has a greater impact on the price of domestic bananas, and they usually rise and fall at the same time.
   (2) Risk Analysis
   1. The contradiction between supply and demand is the main reason for the large fluctuations in prices. The contradiction between supply and demand is the most important factor affecting the banana market. The contradiction between supply and demand is generally stabilized by prices. Once the price of bananas exceeds consumers’ psychological expectations, consumers will reduce their purchases and switch to alternative fruits such as watermelons and apples. The production and prices of alternative fruits will also affect the banana market.
  2. The global economy is in a downward cycle or it may lead to a decrease in investment. The global economy is in a downward cycle, and consumption may be suppressed. In 2020, my country’s economy will still be under various pressures from home and abroad. It is expected that commodity prices may continue to decline in the future, and the banana market may also be due to the macroeconomic downturn or lead to a tightening of social capital to expand investment in bananas.
  3. Extreme weather such as wind and cold damage is still a high risk factor. Among the five major banana producing areas, except Yunnan, the other main producing areas are located along the coast and are areas with a high incidence of typhoons. Typhoons and cold damage have always been high-risk factors for banana production in my country. In particular, large typhoons are devastating and cause bananas. Farming blood has no return. At present, there is no good response to typhoon and cold damage.

  V. Suggestions on Policy Measures

   (1) Suggestions for production links
  1. Coordinately tackle the obstacles of multi-generation continuous cropping, and realize the sustainable and high-quality development of the industry. The government should support scientific research to solve the problem of banana multi-generation continuous cropping obstacles to ensure sustainable and high-quality development of production. The Philippines and Latin American countries have solved the problem of multi-generation continuous cropping of bananas. The use of multi-generation planting not only reduces production and management costs, but also benefits land protection and sustainable use, which is worth learning from our country.
  2. Establish an advanced industrialized production system and change the pattern of small but scattered production. Draw lessons from the advanced experience of the Philippines and Latin American countries to establish a highly efficient industrialized industrial system. From seedling breeding, variety selection, green technology, non-invasive picking, cold chain storage, ripening, marketing and other links, scientific design and operation are carried out, and the industry is developing towards refined development. Give full play to industry associations and cultivate leading enterprises to lead the development of banana industrialization.
  3. Vigorously promote green technology products of pesticides and fertilizers to reduce the occurrence of fusarium wilt. To reverse the long-standing production model of large-scale use of chemical fertilizers and herbicides, the government should increase the promotion and demonstration of biological pesticides and high-efficiency organic bacterial fertilizers through subsidies, tax reductions, etc., and encourage farmers to adopt related technology products to improve and repair soils and reduce The occurrence of soil-borne diseases will fundamentally solve the problem of fusarium wilt.
  4. Continuously improve quality and standardized production to promote industrial transformation and upgrading. Judging from the current development trends of domestic and foreign agricultural products, the market for high-quality agricultural products has huge potential. Bananas have entered an era of price-based quality, which is forcing the transformation and upgrading of production links, continuously improving banana quality and vigorously promoting standardization and green planting, and actively building regional public brands. Products are extended to the mid-to-high-end market.
  (2) Other countermeasures and suggestions
   1. Establish a profit link mechanism for production, supply and marketing to promote the sound development of the industry. Guide and support regional leading enterprises or professional cooperatives to cultivate and build mature and stable production, supply and marketing channels, establish an interest linkage mechanism between purchasers, industry associations, and farmers, reduce intermediate circulation links, change the problem of”purchasing at low prices,” and strengthen banana farmers’ resistance Market risk, bargaining power, to solve the problem of”not selling at a good price”.
  2. Increase industry monitoring and early warning efforts to reduce market risks. Establish industry information disclosure, transparency, and sharing mechanisms, strengthen industry monitoring and early warning and risk analysis and research, and pay particular attention to monitoring and early warning research on the damage of banana substitute fruits and imported bananas to the domestic banana industry to reduce market risks caused by information asymmetry.
  3. Multipath solves the problem of high quality and low price, and promotes the realization of the value of green products. At present, the purchase price and market wholesale price of bananas in my country are generally good and stable. However, the”pain” of domestic bananas lies in the problem of high quality and low prices, that is, bananas grown through green technology cannot sell at good prices. Therefore, the government should encourage and support qualified enterprises or professional cooperatives to extend the industrial chain, and promote the realization of product value through the integration of tertiary industries and green certification, so as to solve the problem of”selling” and”selling prices.”
  4. Strengthen agricultural insurance and reduce business risks. Increase insurance protection for banana planting, especially for natural disasters such as wind and cold damage, simplify claims procedures, appropriately reduce claims conditions, reduce the risk of banana planting companies or banana farmers, and stabilize the development of the industry.
   Article source丨 Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs website