News of April 12:As of the week of April 9, 2021, the global oilseed market prices have fluctuated with each other. The supply of oilseeds is tight and the global vegetable oil market rebounded. This year, the US soybean planting area may be lower than expected, supporting oilseed prices. However, the April supply and demand report issued by the US Department of Agriculture was bearish. The South American harvest of new soybeans accelerated and the pace of US soybean export sales slowed down, which is detrimental to oilseed market prices.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soybean futures rose approximately 1 cent from a week ago to close at 1,403 cents per bushel. The Euronext exchange’s August 2021 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 453.50 euros/ton, an increase of 8.25 euros from a week ago. The intercontinental exchange (ICE) May rapeseed futures rose about 70.2 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 811 Canadian dollars per ton; the FOB spot price of soybeans in the Shanghe region of Argentina was 511 US dollars (including 33%export tax), up from a week ago 2 USD. The Shanghe spot price of Argentine soybean meal was US$422.51 per ton, up US$2.5 from a week ago. The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 5,583 yuan/ton for soybeans in May 2021, down 181 yuan from a week ago.
On Friday, the ICE dollar index closed at 92.18 points, down 0.9%from a week ago.
The planting intention report released by the US Department of Agriculture last week continued to support the oilseed market, and the April supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture this week once again confirmed that the supply is still tight. Analysts pointed out that the oilseed market still needs to attract farmers to increase the scale of planting through price increases, and at the same time allocate demand to avoid depletion of inventories. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated last week that US farmers planned to plant 87.6 million acres of soybeans this year, the highest level since 2018, but far below the 89.996 million acres expected by analysts. Analysts pointed out that the soybean planting area data is too low, far below the scale required by the market, so the market still needs to increase prices to attract farmers to a variety of soybeans.
As the spring planting work in the United States is about to begin, weather forecasts show that in the first half of April, the weather in the Midwestern United States will be sunny and dry, and the temperature will be higher than normal, which is very conducive to the timely start of spring planting work.
The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending April 1, 2021, US soybean net sales for 2020/21 fell by 92,500 tons, setting a new annual low, significantly lower than last week and the four-week average. Net sales in 2021/22 were 338,600 tons, compared with 131,000 tons a week ago. So far in 2020/21, the total US soybean export sales have reached 60,749,200 tons, an increase of 63.2%over the same period last year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised the forecast of soybean production in Brazil in its April supply and demand report, which is unfavorable for oilseed prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that the weather in southern Brazil is good, and the harvest results are good everywhere, so Brazil’s soybean production data has been revised up by 2 million tons to 136 million tons. This also raises the global soybean production data for 2020/21 by 1.4 million tons to 363.2 million tons. This month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for 2020/21 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 120 million bushels. This will be the lowest level in seven years and can only meet ten-day demand.
In South America, a large-scale rainfall process has recently occurred in the agricultural production areas of Argentina, which is conducive to stabilizing crop conditions. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the soybean harvest was 3.5%complete. The exchange predicts that Argentina’s soybean production in 2020/21 is expected to be 43 million tons, lower than the earlier forecast of 44 million tons, due to the decline in yield potential due to dry weather at the beginning of the year.
The prospects for soybean production in Brazil remain bright. According to a report released by the Brazilian consulting agency AgRural on Monday, as of April 1, the 2020/21 soybean harvest in Brazil was 78%completed, 7%higher than 71%a week ago, but lower than 83%in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) this week predicted that Brazil’s soybean production in 2020/21 will be 135.54 million tons, which is 408,000 tons higher than last month’s forecast and 10.695 million tons higher than the previous year. Consulting agency Datagro predicts that Brazil’s soybean production in 2020/21 will reach a record 135.47 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 136.68 million tons and an increase of 6%over the previous year’s output. Céleres said that despite the unfavorable weather, Brazil’s soybean production in 2020/21 will still reach a record 135.9 million tons, higher than the February forecast of 132.6 million tons and an increase of 7.3%over the previous year. Last week, the consulting agency Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil’s soybean production in 2020/21 will reach a record 134.09 million tons, which is 1 million tons higher than the previous forecast and 5.4%higher than the previous year’s output.