Corn:This month’s forecast is that China’s corn imports in 2020/21 will be 22 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last month’s forecast. From the perspective of demand, the production capacity of live pigs will continue to recover, and the demand for feed will increase steadily, but high prices will also restrain the overall corn consumption to a certain extent. From the perspective of supply, farmers and traders have accelerated the digestion of surplus grain, imported corn and substitutes have arrived in Hong Kong in an orderly manner, over-storage of rice for feed has increased, the market has sufficient grain sources, and the intention to plant corn in the new season has increased significantly, which is also conducive to the market. Expected to be stable. On the whole, domestic corn supply and demand tend to be basically balanced in the short term, and the possibility of sharp price rises and falls is unlikely.
Soybeans:The forecast of China’s soybean supply and demand for 2020/21 this month is consistent with that of last month. Domestically, spring plowing in the main soybean production areas is coming soon, the new season soybean planting area may decrease, coupled with the increase in costs such as soybean planting rent, supporting the high price of domestic soybeans. It is expected that the average wholesale price of domestic soybeans in the sales area for the whole year will range from 4575-4775 per ton. Yuan, an increase of 300 Yuan over last month’s forecast. Internationally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a quarterly grain inventory report and a planting intention report. US soybean stocks decreased year-on-year, and the growth rate of planting area was lower than market expectations. This triggered a rise in US soybean futures prices. In addition to the oversupply of global currencies, international soybean prices are expected. High shocks.
Cotton:The purchase and processing of seed cotton in 2020/21 is basically over, and lint sales are faster than in previous years. According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of April 2, the national lint sales rate was 85.1%, a year-on-year increase of 19%. It is predicted this month that the national cotton sown area, output and consumption will remain unchanged from the previous month. From September 2020 to February 2021, China imported a total of 1.66 million tons of cotton, an increase of 100.7%over the same period last year. Taking into account factors such as the steady release of textile and apparel demand driven by the economic upturn and the large price gap between domestic and foreign cotton, imports were raised by 200,000 tons to 2.4 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 7.54 million tons.
Edible vegetable oil:This month’s forecast is that the output of edible vegetable oil in 2020/21 is 28.49 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons from the previous month’s forecast. This is mainly due to the expected increase in imports of rapeseed from Russia and other countries, which will drive the increase in rapeseed oil production. . Most rapeseeds in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are in their blooming period. The temperatures in Jianghuai, the central and eastern Jiangnan and most of South China are relatively high and the moisture content is good, which is generally conducive to the growth of rape. However, we still need to pay attention to the impact of drought in parts of southern Sichuan on the growth of local rape. No adjustments will be made to rapeseed production this month. Edible vegetable oil imports amounted to 9.33 million tons, an increase of 880,000 tons from last month’s forecast. The main reason is that the domestic commercial stocks of edible vegetable oil are at a historically low level and import demand is high. Imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil were raised by 300,000 tons, 200,000 tons, and 100,000 tons, respectively. Driven by factors such as rising international prices and increasing domestic import demand, the forecast range of edible vegetable oil prices has been appropriately raised.
Sugar:China’s sugar production in 2020/21 has entered an advanced stage. As of the end of March, with the exception of most sugar factories in Yunnan and a few sugar factories in Guangxi that have not been squeezed, all other production areas have been squeezed. The country’s cumulative sugar production was 10.12 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons over the same period last year. The cumulative sugar sales was 4.18 million tons, a decrease of 590,000 tons over the same period last year. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 41.3%, a decrease of 7.3 percentage points.
At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Ruili, Yunnan has delayed the harvesting time of some sugar factories. It is expected that in April, the average temperature in the south will be relatively high, and droughts will appear in some sugarcane areas in Guangxi and Yunnan. As the weather gets warmer, the peak sugar consumption season is coming, which is conducive to digesting sugar stocks. In the later stage, it is necessary to track the impact of factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic, weather and sugar imports on the sugar market. Based on comprehensive judgment, there will be no adjustments to the forecast data for 2020/21 this month.
Source:Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs