News from March 28:In the week ending March 26, 2021, global wheat prices fell across the board, mainly because precipitation in the wheat-producing regions of the United States improved the condition of winter wheat crops, the dollar exchange rate strengthened, and US wheat export sales were sluggish, and the Black Sea The prospects for regional wheat production are bright. In addition, the bulk commodity market has fallen across the board, which is also detrimental to prices.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soft red winter wheat futures fell by about 13.75 cents from a week ago, to close at 613.25 cents per cat. The May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 568.25 cents per cat, down 17.25 cents from a week ago. The May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 614 cents per bust, down 13 cents from a week ago. Euronext’s May 2021 milling wheat period reported about 214.75 euros/ton, down 5 euros from a week ago. The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$265/ton, down US$1 from a week ago, FOB price. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange’s wheat futures for delivery in May 2021 closed at 2,694 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan from a week ago.
On Friday, the ICE exchange dollar index closed at 92.735 points, up 0.88%from a week ago. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weakens the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural exports.
The condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop is further improved
Due to the much-needed rainfall in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States, the condition of winter wheat has improved significantly. As of March 21, the quality rate of winter wheat in Kansas, the number one winter wheat producing area, was 45%, which was higher than 38%a week ago; the topsoil moisture shortage to the very shortfall rate dropped to 17%, which was lower than 24%a week ago. 47%two weeks ago.
The excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Oklahoma is 62%, which is higher than 57%a week ago.
The second-largest winter wheat producing region, Texas, has an excellent and good rate of 29%for winter wheat, which is higher than the 27%a week ago.
The percentage of Colorado winter wheat rated as good is 33%, up from 25%a week ago.
The US Department of Agriculture will release its first national crop progress report on April 5.
Improved prospects for Black Sea wheat production
The weather in the agricultural production areas of the Black Sea is favorable for the crops that have just turned green. Rainfall occurred in southern Russia, while the temperature in areas where ice is still present is higher than normal, melting the field ice. Consultancy SovEcon last week raised the 2021 wheat production in Russia by 3.1 million tons to 79.3 million tons. IKAR raised the forecast for Russian wheat production to 79.8 million tons this week, and 1.8 million tons because of good weather conditions in the southern region.
Black Sea wheat prices have fallen in the past week because of weak demand and bright production prospects. According to APK-Inforn, the export price of Ukrainian wheat fell by 5 to 7 US dollars, among which the price of Ukrainian premium milled soft wheat fell to US$274-279 per ton, the price of feed wheat fell to US$270-275, and the FOB price of Black Sea ports. The export price of Russian wheat fell for the third consecutive week. Among them, the FOB price of the Black Sea port of Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5%was 273 US dollars per ton, down 7 US dollars from a week ago.
The pace of U.S. wheat exports is still slow
The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending March 18, the US 2020/21 net wheat sales were 343,600 tons, which was 12%lower than last week, but 24%higher than the four-week average . This report shows that China bought 76,300 tons of American wheat from the United States. The total US wheat export sales so far this year is 24.85 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6%year-on-year.
The global wheat production will reach 790 million tons next year
The International Grain Council (IGC) this month predicts that the global grain production in the 2021/22 season will reach a record 2.287 billion tons, but due to consumption growth, the increased supply will be fully digested. The first forecast report for 2021/22 released by the IGC shows that the global grain supply and demand are balanced, and the ending stocks are expected to be 609 million tons, the same as the previous year.
IGC predicts that the global wheat production in 2021/22 will reach 790 million tons, which is higher than the previous year’s 774 million tons, due to the increase in wheat production including France and Argentina, of which the French wheat production will increase from 30.4 million tons in the previous year Increase to 37.3 million tons, and Argentine wheat production will also increase from 17.2 million tons in the previous year to 20.3 million tons.
Russian wheat production is expected to drop to 76.9 million tons from 85.4 million tons in the previous year.