News from foreign media on March 28:As of the week of March 26, 2021, most of the global oilseed market prices have fallen, and the soybean oil market has fallen from historical highs. The rapid increase in the number of people infected with the new crown virus in Europe, Brazil, and India is worrying about economic recovery and the prospects for commodity demand. The blockage of the Suez Canal has interrupted commodity transportation, the dollar is strong, and the pace of US soybean export sales has slowed. US farmers may significantly increase soybean planting this spring. scale.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soybean futures fell by approximately 15.75 cents from a week ago, to close at 1,400.50 cents per cat. The Euronext exchange’s May 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 506.25 euros/ton, down 8.75 euros from a week ago; the August futures closed at about 442.25 euros/ton. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) May rapeseed futures fell by about 24.7 Canadian dollars from a week ago to close at 751.50 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of soybeans in the Shanghe region of Argentina was 509 US dollars (including 33%export tax), down from a week ago USD 7 or 1.36%. The Shanghe spot price of Argentine soybean meal was US$420/ton per ton, down by about US$18 from a week ago. The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 5,663 yuan/ton for soybeans in May 2021, down 43 yuan from a week ago.
On Friday, the ICE exchange dollar index closed at 92.735 points, up 0.88%from a week ago.
The epidemic has worsened in some parts of the world, and the Suez Canal is blocked.
Multiple negatives in the oilseed market this week and the severe situation of the new crown epidemic in Europe have led to capital inflows into a safe haven for the U.S. dollar, boosting the U.S. dollar exchange rate and weakening the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural exports.
In Europe, the epidemic situation is still severe. The number of new cases in Germany may exceed 100,000 per day. European countries such as France, Switzerland and Norway have tightened restrictions in response to the growing number of cases.
In some Asian countries, the situation of the new crown epidemic has become severe again. Governments in some states in western India require people to stay at home because the number of new coronavirus cases has hit the highest level in five months.
In South America, the epidemic situation has gone out of control in many countries. The number of new confirmed cases in Brazil on Thursday reached a record 100,158, the number of new deaths in a single day exceeded 3,000, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 300,000.
In Chile, the government strengthened the epidemic prevention and control on Thursday, because of the 7,023 new cases in a single day on Thursday, 45 were British variant strains and 45 were Brazilian variant strains. Since Saturday, a mandatory lockdown has been imposed on 16 million people in 198 communities across the country, accounting for 86%of the country’s population.
In the United States, although vaccines are distributed faster than most countries, the upcoming spring vacation trip may once again lead to an increase in the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States.
Starting from Tuesday, a 400-meter-long 220,000-ton ship of my country’s Taiwan Evergreen Shipping Company has been stuck in the middle of the Suez Canal, causing a complete suspension of transportation in this shipping hub. The rescue company said it may take several weeks for the freighter to get out of trouble.
The number of pigs in China has declined, and the pace of import is slow
The number of live pigs in China this year has declined, from 406.5 million at the end of 2020 to about 400 million. The demand for soybean meal and feed has decreased, and soybean crushing has lost money. As a result, the pace of purchases by Chinese buyers has been slow recently. Traders said that Chinese oil plants’ demand for soybeans for April and May shipments declined. On March 23, the gross profit of China’s May shipping schedule soybean crush was 70 cents/ton, which was lower than the 29.1 USD/ton on January 25. In March, China’s soybean crushing gross profit averaged US$1.98/ton, while it was US$28.13/ton and US$16.59/ton in January and February, respectively. Domestic crushers said that once the gross profit fell below US$20/ton, the net profit of crushing would be lost. Therefore, crushers were cautious and waited for the recovery of soybean processing profits.
Recently, US soybean export sales have also slowed down significantly. The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending March 18, US soybean net sales for 2020/21 were 101,800 tons, which was 50%lower than last week and 56%lower than the four-week average. It is worth noting that China did not buy American aging beans or new beans that week. So far this year, US soybean export sales totaled 60.74 million tons, an increase of 69.9%year-on-year.
Brazil’s soybean exports accelerated in March
In South America, the weather in parts of Brazil cleared last week, which helped speed up the harvest. As of March 18, Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean harvest was 59%complete, 13%higher than 46%a week ago, but lower than 66%in the same period last year.
The Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) stated that Brazil’s soybean exports in the first three weeks of March were 7.7 million tons. For comparison, the total monthly export volume in March last year was 10.85 million tons. The average daily export volume in the third week of March was 507,900 tons, which was higher than the 493,000 tons/day in the same period last year.
The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) stated that Brazil’s soybean exports in 23 may reach 16.18 million tons, which is lower than the 16.4 million tons predicted a week ago.
The spring sowing area in the northern hemisphere has become the focus of market attention
Due to high soybean prices and tight supply, the market expects that the soy acreage in the northern hemisphere will increase. The International Grain Council (IGC) predicts that the global soybean production in 2021/22 will increase to 383 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22 million tons.
The USDA will release its annual planting intention report on March 31. According to a survey conducted by American Farm Futures magazine, 88.5 million acres of soybeans will be planted in the United States in 2021, an increase of 6.5%over 2020 and the third highest point ever. According to the trend of 50.8 cattails per acre, the annual soybean production will reach a record 4.451 billion cats.
Analysis agency IHS Markit predicts that the US soybean planting area is expected to reach 89.73 million acres in 2021, slightly lower than the January forecast of 90.08 million acres, but an increase of 8%over the previous year. If the average yield of 51 bu/acre is used, the US soybean production this year may reach 4.534 billion bu.
As of the close of the market this Friday, the November soybean futures and December corn futures, which represent the new season’s crop, had a price of 2.588, lower than the price of 2.587 a week ago. This is also the highest price ratio since 1989. It was the same period last year. 2.39%, indicating that the market’s price incentives for sowing soybeans have increased.
US soybean stocks may fall to historical lows on March 1
The US Department of Agriculture will release its quarterly inventory report on March 31. U.S. agricultural economists predict that U.S. soybean stocks will fall to historical lows on March 1. The soybean stock-to-use ratio is about 2.6%, slightly lower than the record low set in 2013/14. In the quarter from December to the end of February, which is also the second quarter of 2020/21, demand for soybeans in the United States was strong. U.S. soybean consumption in the current season will reach 1.4 billion cats, 316 million cats higher than the five-year average because both export and domestic demand are strong. If soybean stocks do fall to historical lows, the shortage of soybean supplies in the United States this year may lead to increased soybean imports.