The Brazilian Citrus Exporters Association (CitrusBR) said on the 25th that the total output of frozen orange juice concentrate (FCOJ), orange juice concentrate and frozen orange juice in the country in 2020/21 is expected to be 817,744 tons, falling to the historical record since the 2003/04 quarter. Second low level. According to analysis, the decline in orange juice production this year is related to the”small years” of fruit harvests (that is, years with poor cyclical harvests) and climate issues.
Brazil’s G1 website reported that if the actual results are in line with the forecast, then this quarter’s orange juice production will fall by 32%compared to the previous quarter’s data (1.2 million tons). Data show that the Brazilian orange juice harvest in 2016/17 fell to the lowest level in history, with an output of 648,000 tons.
CitrusBR executive director Ibiapaba Netto (Ibiapaba Netto) said:“This situation (decreased production) limits the supply of (juice that can be used for export) to some extent.” He explained that the export supply is more or less There will be tensions, depending on the external market demand this year. So far, internal demand has shown signs of stabilization.
Therefore, stable domestic demand and declining juice supply may result in a decrease in exports of this type of product, just as observed in the first half of the harvest season (that is, the second half of 2020).
CitrusBR’s survey data show that Brazil exported 497,490 tons of orange juice from July to December last year, a decrease of 23.5%compared with the first half of last year. The association estimates that by June 30, 2021 (the end of the harvest season statistics), Brazil’s orange juice stocks are expected to reach 272,979 tons. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the expected value of this inventory fell by 42%, reaching the lowest level since 2019 (253,181 tons).
Netto said:“The main reason for the expected reduction in production is that this year’s cyclical low-harvest year (a two-year cycle), coupled with the dry weather in the citrus production area last year, has led to the citrus harvest this season. There is a drop.”