From Intrafish on February 26, Rabobank senior seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik said at the IntraFish shrimp theme forum this week that as major producing countries continue to increase production, the global shrimp market will remain competitive in 2021, and it will also be a In the buyer’s market, Gorjan Nikolik emphasized that there is currently no disease threat against farmed shrimp in the world.
This year, all eyes will be on China’s demand. In the early stage of the epidemic, due to blockade restrictions and the closure of the catering service industry, China’s demand has been severely hit. If China’s economy returns at a faster rate, this year It will be a great year. Other factors affecting global shrimp demand include the number of vaccinations and the timing of the large-scale opening of the US restaurant industry.
In 2020, the U.S. consumer demand will increase, and the number and revenue will increase. The retail industry is the biggest winner. There is no doubt that the U.S. will still be the main shrimp consumer market in 2021.
Bill Hoenig, vice president of sales and operations at Delta Blue Aquaculture, is not sure about this. He pointed out that import data shows that the United States consumes a lot of shrimp in 2020, but the stocks are still high. Forecasts indicate that domestic Consumption will remain largely unchanged.
The consumption situation in Europe is quite different from that in the United States. The import and export trade in Europe is quite quiet, and both the volume and value have declined. This is related to the blockade and closure of catering services during the epidemic.
China has been the main driver of shrimp demand for many years, and with the decline in imports in the second half of 2020, last year’s performance was disappointing, but now the situation is improving. Ecuador, which has always been exporting peeled shrimps, began to switch to the production and export of raw shrimps because they were optimistic about the Chinese market 10-15 years ago.
Among the major producing countries, Ecuador’s shrimp production continues to maintain an amazing growth. Despite the impact of the epidemic, including the fact that the virus was found in Ecuador’s shrimp last year, orders from China have dropped significantly. However, this South American country has a global Export volume increased by 7%to 1.49 billion pounds.
Gorjan Nikolik said that when China reduced imports, Ecuador’s shrimp products quickly shifted to the United States and Europe. In 2020, exports to Europe increased by 27%to 329 million pounds, and exports to the United States increased by 50%. , Reaching 260 million pounds.
Affected by the epidemic, the supply of Indian shrimp in 2020 will be severely insufficient, and exports have stagnated. Due to the decline in prices, export earnings have further declined. From March to July last year, Indian shrimp exports fell by 12%-15%. The number is not the highest compared to other countries. On the contrary, the situation of Vietnamese shrimp exports is completely different. Although the increase in exports has not been as long as Ecuador, the price of Vietnamese shrimp in 2020 has always been between Ecuador and India.
In October last year, the export value and export volume of Vietnamese shrimp both declined, but the annual level is a trend of maintaining growth. Unlike other producing countries, Indonesia has not performed strongly before, but in 2020, the country’s strong processing capacity makes it a winner among producing countries.
Although there are rumors that Indonesia will see a decline in 2020, Gorjan Nikolik said that he did not see this in the data.
Indonesia is very dependent on the US shrimp market, which may put Indonesia under pressure in 2021 due to the rebound in the Indian market and Ecuadorian producers seeking to diversify their market to get rid of their heavy dependence on China.
In this context, analyst Gorjan Nikolik said that this year is the best year to communicate with the market, educate consumers and drive demand with innovative products, especially when people’s demand for convenience-driven products is strong.