Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industry
By: Date: 2021-02-10 Categories: chinesefood Tags: ,
   1. Development status of kelp industry

   (1) Kelp culture and fishing situation

  1, scale layout

   kelp is one of the main algae products produced in my country. In 2018, my country’s total algae production was 4.71 million tons, of which kelp was 1.52 million tons, accounting for 32.30%of the total algae production. The national algae cultivation area is 140,000 hectares, of which 45,100 hectares of kelp cultivation area, accounting for 31.29%, are mainly distributed in the five provinces of Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Guangdong.

   First of all, from the time trend of kelp culture area, from 2008 to 2018, the national kelp culture area showed an overall upward trend (Figure 1). Before 2013, the aquaculture area of ​​kelp in my country experienced a sharp increase to a balanced level (40,000 hectares), but in 2013 the aquaculture area suddenly dropped to 37,300 hectares. The aquaculture area decreased by 7.21%. Since 2014, the kelp culture area has been increasing slowly. In 2018, the kelp culture area increased by about 34.63%compared to 10 years ago. The total culture area in the country reached 45,100 hectares, accounting for 31.29%of the national algae culture area. Kelp plays an important role in algae products.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage
  Secondly, from the perspective of the area distribution of kelp culture, currently, kelp culture in my country is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal area and the Bohai Bay area (Figure 2). In 2018, a total of 45,100 hectares of kelp cultured nationwide, of which 20397 hectares in Fujian, accounting for 45.23%, is the province with the largest kelp culture area in China; Shandong has a total area of ​​17,156 hectares, accounting for 38.04%, making it the second largest kelp culture in China Large provinces; ranked third is Liaoning Province, with a total of 6073 hectares of farming area, accounting for 13.47%; Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong also farmed kelp, but the farming area is small, and the total output of the three provinces accounted for the total output of the country.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(1)< br/>
   In addition, according to the national kelp production statistics from 1999 to 2018, it can be seen that 2014 is a dividing line for the total kelp production, before and after 2014 The production of kelp has changed significantly (Figure 3). Before 2014, the production of kelp was fluctuating, and the overall trend was slightly increasing, and it exceeded 1 million tons in 2013. Although the aquaculture area of ​​kelp decreased by 7%in 2013, the production increased by nearly 4%compared to 2012. In 2014, the total production of kelp increased significantly, reaching 1.36 million tons, an increase of 33.33%compared to 1.02 million tons in 2013. The total national kelp production in the five years after 2014 shows that domestic kelp production has grown steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. By 2018, the total national kelp production reached 1.52 million tons, nearly double the 1999 level. In general, the total production of kelp in my country is increasing year by year, although the growth rate is slow, it basically maintains an annual growth of 2%.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(2)< br/>
   In addition, Figure 4 shows that the number of kelp nurseries nationwide has been steadily increasing from 1999 to 2018. Although the total number of domestic kelp seedlings declined from 1999 to 2002, in addition to a sharp decline in 2011, the total number of sports seedlings is increasing. Comparing the total annual production of kelp and the annual nursery volume, it can be found that the production of kelp has increased substantially since 2014, which is an increase of approximately 33.3%compared to 2013. Although the total production of kelp has gradually increased since 2014, it can be seen that the marginal production of kelp has gradually declined in recent years by comparing the total output and the output and input of the nursery volume. It may be that global temperature changes and water pollution in recent years have negatively affected the production of kelp, resulting in a large amount of investment in kelp nursery that cannot bring about a high increase in production.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(3)< br/>
  The three provinces of my country’s kelp producing areas are Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning (Figure 5). Fujian is the largest province in kelp aquaculture, with kelp production in the past 5 years It is on a growing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 6.40%. It is the province with the fastest growth rate of kelp production in the country and exceeds the average growth rate of kelp production in the country. In addition to Fujian, the production of kelp in Liaoning Province has also been increasing in the past five years, with a slight increase. As the second largest province in kelp production, Shandong has gradually declined in kelp production in the past five years, but it has remained above 500,000 tons. In contrast, the production of kelp in the three provinces of Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangsu is relatively small, and the annual kelp production fluctuates slightly.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(4)< br/>
   Figure 6 shows that the kelp culture area of ​​major domestic kelp producing provinces also fluctuated from 2014 to 2018. The kelp culture area in Fujian and Shandong fluctuated greatly. From 2014 to 2016, the kelp culture area in Fujian gradually increased. In 2016, the kelp culture area in Fujian reached 19,789 hectares, but by 2017, the kelp culture area in Fujian fell by nearly 6.4%. However, the reduction in aquaculture area did not affect Fujian’s kelp production. In general, Fujian, as a major kelp production province in the country, has gradually increased the area of ​​kelp culture and the production of kelp. The aquaculture area of ​​kelp in Shandong fluctuated significantly from 2014 to 2018. Although the overall aquaculture area has increased, the production of kelp has been on a downward trend during these five years, with an average annual reduction of nearly 10,000 tons of kelp. The kelp culture area of ​​Liaoning, the third province producing large seaweeds, fluctuates, but the production of kelp in Liaoning does not fluctuate much, and is in a trend of steady growth. The area of ​​kelp culture in Jiangsu Province is decreasing year by year, and consequently the production of kelp in Jiangsu Province is also decreasing year by year. The aquaculture area of ​​kelp in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces has been increasing year by year, but overall the aquaculture area in the two provinces is relatively small, accounting for only 2.6%of the national aquaculture area.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(5)< br/>
  2, industrial benefits

   kelp is a large economic algae of cold water, which is naturally distributed in the Shandong Peninsula (north of Qingdao) and Dalian coastal areas in China. Kelp is not only a marine food vegetable rich in nutrients, but also rich in economic ingredients such as algin, mannitol, iodine, etc. It is also an important raw material for industries such as medicine and health care, seaweed chemicals, and agricultural fertilizers. my country has formed a chain industry integrating kelp seedling, breeding, food processing, algae chemical and biological products development. The economic, social and ecological benefits of the kelp industry are significant. It is promoting employment, increasing fishermen’s income, and providing national people’s dietary health videos. Make important contributions to maintaining the ecological balance of aquaculture and promoting the development of abalone and sea cucumber industries through linkage.

   economic benefits. Kelp is a kind of nutrient-rich brown algae, rich in a variety of minerals, and has extremely high economic value in industry and food processing. According to the different processing methods of kelp, it is divided into rough processing and finishing. The primary processing of kelp is mainly dry and salted primary products, accounting for about 80%of kelp products, while the intensive processing of kelp is mainly processing kelp into food and industrial processing, and a small part is processed in agriculture and medical industries. . Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning are the major provinces of kelp culture in my country. The kelp culture area accounts for more than 90%of the national aquaculture area, creating hundreds of billions of economic benefits for my country every year. my country has become the world’s largest algae culture country.

   kelp cultivation and processing has promoted the economic development of coastal areas in my country, and the lives of fishermen have been improved. The aquaculture area of ​​kelp is expanding year by year. With the development and improvement of the kelp processing industry, tens of thousands of jobs have been created for coastal areas. The processed kelp products are not only sold in the mainland. The intensively processed kelp products, such as kelp juice, kelp fish rolls and other soft packaging and canned products are exported to Japan, Southeast Asia and other countries. With the development of coastal aquaculture and processing industries, local fishermen have increased their income and gradually become rich.

   ecological benefits. While the coastal economy is developing rapidly, the pollution of coastal water quality is getting worse. The major pollutants in a large area of ​​the sea are inorganic nitrogen and inorganic phosphorus. Among them, ammonia nitrogen and nitrite are extremely harmful to aquaculture organisms. Water bodies with high concentrations of ammonia nitrogen and nitrite can cause various types of aquaculture organisms. Diseases and even deaths cause economic losses for fishermen. However, kelp aquaculture can not only create economic benefits, but also remove inorganic nitrogen and inorganic phosphorus from water bodies, transforming dissolved carbon dioxide in water bodies, and help to synergize with cultured organisms to purify water bodies and alleviate water eutrophication problems.

   First, studies have shown that kelp and farmed animals are ecologically complementary. During kelp farming, a large amount of inorganic nitrogen will be absorbed, reducing the content of inorganic nitrogen in the water body and at the same time absorbing farmed animals The excess nutrients released into the water body are transformed into products with high economic value, so as to achieve the purpose of repairing the water body and promoting the nitrogen and phosphorus cycle of the water body.

  Secondly, kelp has a good absorption capacity for nitrogen. If the N in kelp is 2.13%and P is calculated as 0.3%, the water content of fresh kelp is 90%. In an ideal state, every 1,000 tons of kelp cultured can absorb 2130kg of nitrogen and 300kg of phosphorus in the water. It can be seen from the ability of kelp to absorb and transform nitrogen and phosphorus, kelp is a very effective biological filter, which brings hope for alleviating seawater eutrophication.

   Furthermore, the annual carbon sequestration capacity of kelp is 0.234kg/㎡. If standardized conversion is adopted, kelp can better fix the carbon in the water body and can effectively carry out Ecological regulation helps prevent excessive carbon dioxide in the water body from being released into the air. Therefore, farming kelp can also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  Social benefits. Kelp culture helps to develop the local economy in light of the production situation in the production area. Farmers in coastal areas mainly rely on aquaculture for agricultural production. Compared with inland paddy fields and dry land, coastal mariculture and freshwater aquaculture are more developed. The three provinces of Fujian, Shandong and Liaoning are the main producing areas of kelp in my country. The kelp aquaculture industry continues to develop and expand, creating huge social benefits.

  Fujian’s kelp industry has grown from nothing to the present, helping people to get rid of poverty and get rich and live and work in peace, which is enough to see that kelp farming is the Fujian region Contribution to the development of Fujian introduced kelp seedlings from Qingdao, Shandong Province in October 1956, and successfully raised them in a raft in Jianglian County. Since then, Fujian has opened the door to kelp cultivation. Fujian has experienced more than 50 years of kelp farming practices, and now Fujian has made many achievements in kelp breeding, breeding, and processing. The kelp seedlings cultivated in Fujian are not only sold throughout the country, but also exported overseas. The successful practice of kelp seedling and breeding has promoted the development of related kelp industries in Fujian. Companies including food processing companies and chemical companies have sprung up, and the emerging companies have driven local employment. At the same time, they have also promoted processed kelp products, such as salted and cooked kelp. Dried, kelp tofu, etc. are exported overseas to promote local economic development. The development of related kelp industries along the coast has also responded to the country’s call for poverty alleviation and prosperity, giving full play to local advantages, adapting measures to local conditions, developing agriculture, and building villages, providing development impetus for realizing rural revitalization.

  The development of the kelp industry in Fujian is a microcosm of the development of the kelp industry in my country. On the whole, the development of the kelp industry in my country is rapid, and kelp is the largest producer of algae products in my country Algae products, kelp cultivation accounts for more than 50%of algae cultivation every year, and is the main economic crop for algae cultivation. Therefore, the development of the kelp aquaculture industry affects the development of the algae industry in my country. Therefore, considering the huge social benefits brought by kelp aquaculture, the country and society should pay attention to it, improve the technical service level of algae aquaculture in coastal areas, and increase support for algae aquaculture. Intensify efforts to promote the development and improvement of the coastal algae aquaculture industry, so that my country’s kelp aquaculture industry can move towards sustainable development.

  (2) Kelp processing and trade situation

  1. Current situation of kelp trade

  According to the China Customs database, my country’s kelp trade is divided into fresh kelp trade (HS code 12122110) and salted kelp trade (HS code 20089932). my country’s kelp trade is mainly export-oriented, and the export volume is much higher than the import volume. Among them, among the fresh algae, my country exports the most fresh kelp, with an export value of 16 million U.S. dollars in 2018. In the processed algae, the proportion of salted kelp exports is not very large. The import unit price of fresh kelp is higher than the export unit price, and the trade price deficit is 2.73 US dollars/kg. From 2015 to 2017, the export unit price of salted kelp was higher than the import unit price, but in 2018 there was a trade price deficit with a price difference of US$0.57/kg.

   my country’s fresh kelp is mainly exported, and the export volume is far greater than the import volume. From 2015 to 2018, the import volume of fresh kelp in my country showed a trend of rising first and then falling, fluctuating between 12,000 tons and 18,000 tons. In 2018, the import volume of fresh kelp in my country was 12,100 tons, and the import value was 725,600 US dollars. The import value of fresh kelp has been increasing year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%. In recent years, the import value has stabilized at 700,000 US dollars. From 2015 to 2018, the export volume of fresh kelp showed a trend of first decline and then rise, while the export volume was relatively unstable, fluctuating between 14 million US dollars and 17 million US dollars. In 2018, the export volume of fresh kelp in my country exceeded 500,000 tons, and the export value was 16.3 million US dollars. From the perspective of trade unit price, the import unit price of fresh kelp in my country is higher than the export unit price, and the import unit price is 4 US dollars/kg-6 USD/kg, and the export unit price is about 3.5 USD/kg.

   The main import sources of fresh kelp in my country are South Korea and Japan. In 2018, the imports of these two countries accounted for about 99%of the total fresh kelp imports . The main export destination countries are Japan, Russia and the United States. In 2018, the export volume of fresh kelp to these three countries was about 80%of the total export value. Among them, fresh kelp was exported to Japan the most in 2018, with an export value of 8.21 million US dollars (Table 1).
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(6)< br/>
   my country’s salted kelp is mainly exported, and the export volume is much higher than the import volume. From 2015 to 2018, the import volume of salted kelp in my country was relatively small, not exceeding 6,000 tons, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The import volume fluctuated greatly, and also showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In 2018, the import volume of salted kelp in my country was 1,400 tons, and the import value was US$6.91. From 2015 to 2018, the export volume was almost stable at around 1 million tons, showing a trend of first decline and then rise. The export value has been on a downward trend, with an average annual decline rate of 11%. In 2018, the export volume of salted kelp in my country was 1.1172 million tons, and the export value was US$48 million. From the perspective of trade unit price, the export unit price of salted kelp in my country from 2015 to 2017 was higher than the import unit price. In 2018, my country’s export unit price was US$4.26/kg, while the import unit price was US$4.83/kg. There was a trade price deficit with a price difference of US$0.57/kg.

  The main import source country of salted kelp in my country is South Korea, and its export value in 2018 exceeded US$66,900. The largest export destination of salted kelp is the Taiwan, Penghu, Jinma Customs Territory, and the export value in 2018 was US$44 million. Followed by Russia and the United States, exports in 2018 were 1.73 million U.S. dollars and 770,000 U.S. dollars (Table 2).
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(7)
  2, kelp processing situation

   According to the data provided by Beijing Yubo Zhiye Market Consulting Co., Ltd.”2017-2022 In-depth Analysis of Algae Industry and”13th Five-Year” Development Planning Guidance Report”, The output value of algae farming is 43.1 billion. In 2011, the total production of seaweed cultivation in my country was 1.63 million tons, with an output value of 30 billion. The total output in 2018 was 2.344 million tons, and the output value was approximately 43.1 billion yuan. Among them, the seaweed chemical industry is 3.6 billion yuan, the alginate industry output value is 2 billion yuan, the agar gum industry output value is 800 million yuan, the carrageenan industry output value is 800 million yuan, the seaweed food industry is about 300, and the total output value is 11.2 billion yuan. There are hundreds of enterprises with an annual output value of more than 7 billion yuan. There are more than a dozen wakame processing enterprises, mainly in Liaoning, with an annual output value of about 2 billion yuan. The output value of laver is about 1.2 billion yuan. The output value of laver is about 1 billion yuan. The agricultural product industry is 300 million yuan, and the annual output value of the seaweed powder and seaweed fertilizer industry is about 300 million yuan. In addition, there are about 300,000 fishermen engaged in seaweed farming in China.

  According to the conditions of the companies and test stations tested, the most important crop for algae harvesting from May to July is kelp, and the output of the pond is 10,000 tons. As a unit, in June, the highest volume of ponds was 27,800 tons, accounting for 99.59%of the total volume of 28,000 tons of algae crops in the country in June. Among them, Shandong Rongcheng Daying Marine Aquaculture Co., Ltd. had the highest sales volume of kelp in June, about 19,800 tons, and sales reached 18.9667 million. The sales volume of kelp of Dalian Haibao Fishery Co., Ltd. is also relatively good, reaching 40 thousand tons and sales of 2.7737 million.

   In terms of the production input of algae products, the main production input of kelp is manpower input, which accounts for 88.59%of the total production input. The actual investment amount is RMB 28,793,300 . Material input is divided into seedling, feed and fuel, accounting for about 10.99%, and the actual input amount is 3.5729 million yuan. Service expenditure only accounts for 0.42%. For Xinchengshan Marine Company and Rongcheng Daying Marine Aquaculture Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Daying Company), which both use kelp as their main crop, the production input per kilogram of kelp by Daying Company is significantly lower than that of Xinchengshan Marine Company. The average production investment of Daying Company is only 0.54 yuan, while the average production investment of Xinchengshan Ocean Company is 1.95 yuan, which is nearly four times that of Daying Company. Specifically, both companies spend a relatively high proportion of their labor expenditures, accounting for more than 90%of their total production inputs. However, the sales volume of Xinchengshan Ocean Company is low, so the production input per kilogram of kelp is too much.

   Regarding the market situation of algae products, for the sales price of algae, the average price of algae is the highest in May, which can reach 2.3 yuan/kg. The average price of algae in July was the lowest in history, at 0.95 yuan/kg. The price of kelp has always been a relatively high price among many algae. Especially from August to October, the price of kelp remained high, reaching 7.49 yuan/kg in August. Regarding the number of algae sales, the national algae sales volume was the highest in September, and the actual sales volume was 34,900 tons. Among them, kelp reached the highest sales value in June, and the actual sales volume was 27,800 tons. As for algae sales, May-June is the peak season for algae crop kelp, with sales reaching 36,358,400 yuan and 36,460,400 yuan, respectively, and the sales of other algae crops have little difference. Xinchengshan Marine Company, which mainly produces kelp, had the highest sales from May to June. Sales in May exceeded 22.40 million yuan, while sales in June reached 12.8 million yuan.

  (3) Kelp market price and fluctuation analysis< /strong>

   my country is a major producer, consumer and exporter of algae products. Relying on superior natural resources and advanced aquaculture technology, my country’s algae industry has achieved rapid development. This article aims to use the STL price decomposition model to analyze the historical trend and volatility characteristics of kelp prices in my country. STL decomposition method is a data analysis method that decomposes time series into long-term trends, seasonal fluctuations and random factors. Among them, the long-term trend (Trend component) reflects the impact of the long-term development trend of the kelp market on the price fluctuations of the kelp; the seasonal component (Seasonal component) represents the price change of the kelp due to seasonal factors; the random fluctuation (Remainder component) ) Represents the part of the kelp price series that cannot be explained by seasonal and long-term trends, reflecting the impact of policies, festivals and extreme weather on the price of kelp. Calculate and clarify the internal mechanism of kelp price fluctuations, explore the influence mechanism of kelp price changes and various factors, in order to further stabilize the kelp market price and balance the income of the seaweed culture industry. In view of this, the Economic Research Office of the National Algae Industry Technology System uses the STL decomposition method to analyze the price fluctuations of kelp in my country based on the main algae species-the kelp producer price index data, and uses the fixed observation point enterprise survey data to analyze the price of kelp in 2019 Analysis and summary of changes.

  1. my country’s kelp industry supply, demand and price characteristics< /strong>

   kelp prices have increased steadily. According to the 2018 China Fisheries Statistical Yearbook, since 2010, the overall production of marine kelp in my country has been increasing. As of 2017, the total output of kelp products in the country reached 1,486,600 tons, accounting for 66.73%of my country’s total algae production. Among them, the total output of kelp nationwide in 2013 increased significantly, with a growth rate of 33.73%, which was mainly caused by the increase in kelp production in Shandong Province that year. The three major kelp-producing provinces in my country are Fujian, Shandong and Liaoning. Fujian and Liaoning provinces have seen steady growth in kelp production, and Shandong’s production has increased significantly in 2013.

  The aquaculture area of ​​kelp is increasing in fluctuation. Kelp, as a large-scale cold-water economic algae, is naturally distributed in my country’s Shandong Peninsula (north of Qingdao) and coastal areas of Dalian, covering Fujian, Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other provinces. From the perspective of the aquaculture area, the kelp culture area in China showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2017, but there were also two periods of fluctuations during the period:(1) The kelp culture area decreased for three consecutive years from 2005 to 2008, respectively. A year-on-year decrease of 5.96%, 9.83%and 11.46%year-on-year, which directly dropped from 43,900 hectares in 2005 to 33,500 hectares, and there was a slight increase in 2009; (2) The area of ​​kelp culture was slightly increased from 2012 to 2013. The adjustment was reduced from 40,200 hectares to 37,300 hectares, but then it rebounded and showed a steady upward trend year by year until 2017, the breeding area reached a maximum of 44,200 hectares. (3) Among the main provinces for kelp culture, Zhejiang and Fujian have relatively stable culture areas.

   kelp industry structure and price characteristics. The culture of kelp in my country began in the 1950s and has now formed an industrial chain covering primary processing, finishing and deep processing. However, the processing industry has relatively weak technology and simple product structure, and its development is at an early stage. Taking Fujian and Shandong as the main producing areas, the kelp industry chain in Fujian includes seedling, breeding and food processing, mainly the primary processing of kelp feed and salted kelp, and the sophisticated production of dried kelp and snack food. Processing, sea cucumber and abalone feed consumption of kelp feed accounts for 30%of the output. The industrial chain of Shandong Province includes seedling breeding, breeding, food processing and chemical industry. The primary processing is mainly dried kelp and salted kelp, the intensive processing is mainly food and industrial processing, and a small part is medicine and agricultural processing.

  2. Analysis of kelp price fluctuation based on STL model

   This report uses the quarterly price data of my country’s kelp producers from 2011 to 2017, using STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess) time The sequence decomposition method decomposes the time series into long-term trend (trend component), seasonal component (seasonal component) and random fluctuation (remainder component), and then analyzes the price fluctuation of kelp in my country. The data used in this report comes from my country’s agricultural product price yearbook.

   It can be seen from Figure 9 that from 2011 to 2017, the price of kelp showed a trend of a slight decline and a volatile increase. Among them, in 2013, the price of kelp in my country fluctuated sharply. At the same time, according to the decomposition of STL time series, the price of kelp in my country is obviously affected by random factors, and is less affected by long-term trends and seasonal fluctuations.
Report on Development of my country’s Kelp Industryimage(8)< br/>
   my country’s kelp price index in 2017 was 113.53, and the price index in the second quarter of 2014 was the lowest at 50.16. The price index in the first quarter of 2017 was the highest at 140.56. Among them, the price fluctuations from 2013 to 2014 were quite severe, with the difference between the highest price index and the lowest price index of 109.24. The multi-factor superposition of festival effects, haze weather and kelp diseases caused sharp price fluctuations during the 2014 Spring Festival. In addition, the drying period of kelp plays a key role in the quality and yield of kelp.

  In terms of long-term trends, the impact on the price of algae in my country has steadily increased, and since the second quarter of 2016, the impact has increased slightly. Specifically, from 2011 to the first quarter of 2016, my country’s algae price volatility was relatively stable due to long-term trends. After the second quarter of 2016, my country’s algae price volatility was affected by long-term trends and increased slightly, which is related to frequent fluctuations in algae prices. Joint.

  In terms of seasonal trends, the impact on the price of algae in my country has a general regularity. According to the growth habit of kelp, kelp is cultivated in October every year, and harvested from May to September of the following year. It shows a cyclical change with the change of natural seasons within a year.

  In terms of random factors, 2013-2016 will have a greater impact on the price of algae in my country, especially during the Spring Festival in 2014, when consumer demand increased, kelp prices rose slightly , The product substitution effect has caused the price of kelp to fall sharply. At the same time, sea water temperature, haze weather, pollution and disease in the breeding environment are the main reasons for the changes in kelp production.

  3, 2018-2019 kelp price fluctuation analysis

   As of September 2019, a total of ten fixed observation points for the kelp industry have been established, of which two kelp production monitoring stations in Rongcheng, Shandong account for approximately the total area of ​​the monitoring stations 85%of kelp sales also far exceed other testing stations. During 2018, the production of kelp was excessive and the weak market demand caused the price of kelp to decline. In 2018, the comprehensive sales price of kelp was 2.2 yuan/kg (dried kelp), the average price of fresh vegetables was 0.46 yuan/kg-0.48 yuan/kg, and the price of food vegetables was 0.6 yuan/kg. In terms of sales, compared to 2017, total sales in 2018 have declined. In addition, seaweed processing companies have purchased fewer kelp than usual, and some kelp has been converted into dried vegetables to enter the market, further promoting market saturation.

   During 2019 (January-September), the raw kelp collection point sold 47,000 tons of kelp, the sales revenue was 77.062 million yuan, and the comprehensive sales price was 1.64 yuan/kg , A further decrease from 2018. From May to July each year is the concentrated harvesting period of kelp. From May to July 2019, with the large-scale mature harvest of kelp, the price of kelp continued to fall. In August, the amount of kelp out of the pond decreased sharply, and the price also stopped falling and rebounded (Table 3).
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  4. Summary

   Since entering the new century, the scale of my country’s kelp industry has developed rapidly and the industrial structure has been optimized. This paper uses STL time series decomposition to explore the characteristics and main reasons of the price fluctuation of kelp in my country. Since 2010, the overall production of mariculture kelp in my country has been increasing, and the production of kelp in Shandong Province has increased significantly. From 2000 to 2016, the area of ​​kelp culture in my country showed an upward trend in fluctuations, showing a development model with primary processing as the mainstay and intensive processing as the supplement.

   The analysis of historical price fluctuations of kelp based on the STL model shows that during the period from 2011 to 2017, the price of kelp in my country showed a trend of slight decline and volatility. Factors affect kelp fluctuations around 2013. At the same time, the price of kelp in my country is obviously affected by long-term trends and random factors, and less affected by seasonal fluctuations.

  The fixed observation point data of the algae industry system shows that in 2018, my country’s kelp production was surplus, and the sluggish market demand caused the price of kelp to drop. During 2019, from January to July, the price of kelp continued the downward trend of the previous year, and the price of kelp stopped falling and rebounded from August. Based on this, it is recommended that the competent authorities and business enterprises pay attention to the establishment of kelp information circulation channels, improve the price fluctuation supervision and prevention mechanism, so as to obtain timely and accurate domestic kelp price and production supply and demand information, and effectively avoid the large fluctuations in the price of kelp from the enterprises, The negative impact and impact brought by farmers and consumers.

   (4) Analysis of the consumption structure of the kelp market

The    Algae Industry System Industrial Economic Research Office launched the theme”Consumers’ Value Demand, Attribute Preference and Demand Structure of Kelp Products from November to December 2019″, a large-scale social questionnaire survey. The survey was launched on the online questionnaire survey platform-Questionnaire Star-widely used by social science researchers. A total of 1085 questionnaires were collected in this survey, of which 18 were obviously abnormal and were excluded. The final effective sample was 1067, and the effective sample recovery rate was 98.3%. This survey sample mainly covers 29 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities across the country. The distribution of the sample by province is shown in Figure 10.
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  1. Basic situation of the sample

   There are 587 women (55.01%) among the respondents in this survey, with an average age of 29.98 years (SD =8.102),样本的年龄覆盖范围较广。样本的家庭人口数分布在1-9之间,平均家庭人口数为3.64(SD=1.130),样本的家庭规模覆盖较广。在受教育水平上,有80%以上的受访者的学历在大学本科及以上,这表明受访者的学历偏高。在工作状态方面,有80.97%的受访者为全职,有11.53%的受访者为学生。在工作类型上,本次调查的受访者的工作主要分布在制造业(22.21%)、专业人士(教育、医疗、法律、文体、科技等)(21.56%)、管理、商业、金融领域(13.50%)和服务业(10.12%)。在家庭月收入方面,本次调查的受访者的家庭税前月收入分布在6000-20000元(61.29%)之间,属于中低收入水平。在家庭月生活花费方面,本次调查的受访者的家庭月生活花费分布在2000-5000元之间(52.3%)。在家庭月饮食花费方面,本次调查有一半以上的(55.48%)受访者的家庭月饮食花费在2000元以下,在饮食方面的投入较少。具体情况见表4:
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  [1] 杜连启,杨艳。 海藻食品加工技术[M]. 化学工业出版社。 2013.

  (1) 消费者海带消费频率

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  (1) 消费者对海带的喜好程度


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  对于消费者对海带营养认知水平的测量主要是让消费者对 “您对海带富含的营养有多了解”以及“与陆生蔬菜相比,您觉得海带在营养方面是否有优势”这两个方面进行评价。其中,1代表一点也不了解/一点没优势,2代表不了解/没优势,3代表一般,4代表了解/有优势,5代表非常了解/非常有优势。图18和图19展示了受访者对各项指标评级的分布情况。
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  技术要点:针对荣成海带养殖设施和区间布局不规范,养殖密度缺乏科学指导等问题,团队在合理化密植试验和当地多家企业应用效果基础上,建立了海带筏式养殖标准化技术。该技术主要包括三部分:(1)养殖设施标准化。筏架绠绳采用直径2.4cm的聚乙烯绳,筏架长度80m-100m,养殖高区可适当缩短;浮漂为直径28cm的圆球形浮漂,采用PVC或PE等环保材料制作,根头部分使用30cm或32cm浮漂以增加浮力;吊绳采用直径0.3cm-0.5cm的聚乙烯绳,长度0.5m-1m;养殖苗绳为直径1.3cm的红棕绳或红棕丝与聚乙烯纤维混纺绳,长度2.3m-3.0m,两条苗绳打结系在一起,两端分别固定于吊绳上。使用八字环固定吊绳和专用浮漂卡扣固定浮漂,代替传统人工打结法,可大大提高工作效率。 (2)养殖航道与区间布局规范化。筏架以顺流筏设置为主,30台-40台筏架组成1个养殖小区,4个小区组成1个大区,呈田字型排列,小区航道间距30m-40m,大区航道间距80m-100m。 (3)养殖密度标准化。筏架间距5m-6m,以6m较为合适;夹苗单株株间距(单夹)8cm-8.5cm、苗绳间距90cm-100cm。每亩(指海域面积)夹苗总数控制在8500株-9500株,平均9000株。该技术得到荣成市海洋与渔业局支持,并与浮漂标准化工程结合,在全市推广。 2018年9月-10月,共召开两次培训会,发放规范化建议手册300份,总推广面积超过4600亩。实际应用效果表明:海带养殖密度降低约20%,鲜菜产量增加10%以上,每1000亩养殖效益增加100万元以上。

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  技术要点:长岛拥有“中国海带之乡”和“中国扇贝之乡”美称,海带和虾夷扇贝养殖在当地海洋渔业经济中占有重要地位。但随着近年来养殖密度不断加大,海洋环境变化和劳动力成本逐年增加等原因,扇贝死亡率明显升高,海带和扇贝养殖效益均受到较大影响。大型藻类与滤食性贝类存在生态耦合机制,在生态互利机制基础上,长岛增殖实验站研发团队自2011年开始进行藻贝间养模式的研究,即在一个养殖筏架上的两根相邻海带养殖绳中间挂养虾夷扇贝养殖笼,开展海带与虾夷扇贝间隔养殖。经过几年的探索和实践,建立了成熟的海带与虾夷扇贝间养模式,并于2018年通过专家验收。该模式技术要点:养殖水深10m以上,海带养殖绳长度8m,绳间距1.5m,夹苗间距10cm,养殖筏间距8m;在绠绳上每两根海带养殖绳中间挂养一个虾夷扇贝养殖笼,直径33cm,每个养殖笼16层,海带夹苗时一龄虾夷扇贝(壳高2-3cm)每层25个-35个,第二年3月份虾夷扇贝分苗,每层10个-20个,夏季高温期适当调节养殖笼深度。采取海带与虾夷扇贝间养,不仅可改善海带生长状况,亦可明显提高虾夷扇贝生长速度和存活率。测定结果表明:间养区海带平均长度397.0cm、宽度56.0cm、株重3.1kg,虾夷扇贝壳高5.8cm,存活率为93.0%;非间养区海带平均长度377.0cm,平均宽度51.0cm,平均株重3.0kg,虾夷扇贝壳高5.1cm,存活率为67.0%。相对于非间养模式,间养模式下海带可增产3.0%,虾夷扇贝存活率提高38.8%。 2018年,示范推广该养殖模式600亩,间养区经济效益明显提高,成效显著。
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