Abstract:This article summarizes the main characteristics of the development of my country’s rabbit industry in 2020, analyzes the main problems existing in the rabbit industry, looks forward to the development trend of the rabbit industry in 2021, and puts forward relevant suggestions to promote the development of the industry.
1 Features and problems of rabbit industry development in 2020
In the past two years, multiple uncertainties at home and abroad, such as the African swine fever, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and Sino-US trade frictions, have brought a significant impact on the development of the Chinese rabbit industry. The outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018 caused a shortage of pork supply and boosted the demand for rabbit meat. However, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in early 2020 has had a huge impact on the rabbit industry in my country. Throughout 2020, the rabbit industry declined sharply in the first half of the year and gradually recovered in the second half.
1.1 Development characteristics of the rabbit industry in 2020
1.1.1 The rabbit industry slows down and the output value resumes growth
For many years, the development of my country’s rabbit industry has slowed down due to supply-side structural reforms and environmental protection policies. It can be seen from Table 1 that my country’s rabbit industry has rebounded in 2019. It is initially estimated that the production of slaughter, stock and rabbit meat in 2020 will reach 31.443 million, 131.425 million and 500 thousand tons, respectively, an increase of 1.98%and 7.67 compared with 2019.%And 0.66%.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, rabbit meat production in the first half of 2020 will drop by 30%-40%. Since the second half of the year, as the impact of the epidemic has weakened, rabbit meat production has recovered quickly, especially since the third quarter. It is estimated that the annual rabbit meat production in 2020 will be the same as in 2019, at about 500,000 tons. Affected by the high price of rabbit meat and other rabbit products, the output value of the rabbit industry in 2020 is 27.822 billion yuan (Figure 1), an increase of 4.55%over 2019, and the output value of the rabbit industry accounts for 0.92%of the output value of animal husbandry.
1.1.2 There was a”U”-shaped fluctuation throughout the year, and the production fluctuations of Rex and Hairy rabbits were more obvious
In 2020, China’s rabbit industry suffered a triple blow. At the beginning of the new year, the new crown epidemic broke out. From February to April, farmers faced difficulties in transportation, shortage of feed and unavailable sales of commercial rabbits. The industry suffered the first hit; in July, feed End-to-end bans, rabbit production performance declined, survival rate dropped significantly, production costs rose rapidly, and the industry suffered the second hardest hit; affected by the global epidemic and Sino-US trade frictions, raw material prices continued to rise, especially since the second half of the year. The price of corn rose by nearly 1,000 yuan per ton, and the price of soybean meal rose by nearly 700 yuan per ton, driving the overall rise of other raw materials, and the industry suffered the third hardest hit. Looking at the months of 2020, the overall production of the rabbit industry showed”U”-shaped fluctuations, with rex rabbits and fur rabbits more obvious (Figure 2).
It can be seen from Figure 2 that the rabbit industry index ① showed a significant downward trend before August, from 124.78 in February to 104.64 in August, an overall decrease of 16.14%. After entering September, the rabbit industry index rebounded quickly in fluctuations, reaching 115.80 in October, and fluctuating around 118.00 in November and December. It can be seen that the rabbit industry showed a downward trend in the first half of 2020 and began to rebound in the second half of the year. The strong rebound is mainly due to the better performance of meat rabbits, rex rabbits and fur rabbits in the second half of the year. Overall, the current rabbit industry is close to the level before the epidemic, but it has not fully recovered.
(Note:①The rabbit industry index was established in 2011 by the industrial economic position of the rabbit system. It integrates meat rabbits, rex rabbits and fur rabbits, considering the market of corn and soybean meal, and finally consists of rabbit product price index, feed price index and rabbit industry expert index The index is based on January 2011 (that is, 100). If the index is higher than 100, it is better than 2011. If it is lower than 100, the opposite is true. The higher the index, the better.)
1.1.3 The price of rabbit meat was adjusted at a high level, the price of rabbit skin fluctuated in a downturn, and the price of rabbit fur began to rise
In 2020, the price of rabbit meat will drop first and then rise. The price fluctuated from 26.08 yuan/kg in January to 25 yuan/kg in August, and rebounded after August, reaching 26.48 yuan/kg in December. . The price fluctuation trend of live rabbits is similar to that of rabbit meat. Overall, the current rabbit meat price is at a relatively high level in the past 5 years. The price of live rex rabbits has been declining for nearly 7 years, but it has begun to rise after the second half of 2020. At the end of 2020, the price of live rex rabbits was 16.46 yuan/kg, higher than the 13.87 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year. In 2020, the price of rabbit fur has rebounded overall, especially the price of coarse fur, which has basically maintained a slow upward trend since May 2019 (164.25 yuan/kg), reaching 207.14 yuan/kg by the end of 2020. The price of the shearing system is basically hovering at a low level, at the end of 2020 at 123.21 yuan/kg, slightly lower than the 128.69 yuan/kg at the beginning of 2020.
1.1.4 Transition from focusing solely on breeding to focusing on both breeding and processing
Rabbit product processing companies are mainly concentrated in the production, processing and export of rabbits. However, in order to improve the overall efficiency of rabbit breeding, a large number of large-scale farmers have also processed rabbit meat and rabbit skin. Among them, an outstanding performance of meat rabbit processing is the continuous appearance of professional rabbit meat restaurants. At the same time, casual rabbit meat products and vacuum-packed rabbit meat products are also rapidly increasing. Rex rabbit breeders have also begun slaughtering and processing, selling skin and meat separately in order to obtain higher profits. In order to further solve the problem of rabbit fur inventory, some small and medium-sized rabbit fur processing factories have appeared in Shandong Province, and the processing level and quality of rabbit fur have been significantly improved.
1.1.5 The export of rabbit meat, rabbit skin and rabbit fur has declined across the board
For a long time, the trade pattern of rabbit products in my country is that rabbit meat is mainly for export, and there is basically no import. Rabbit skins are mainly imported, with few exports. Rabbit fur is mainly exported, but the export volume has plummeted in the past ten years (Figure 3).
①Rabbit meat. Since 2015, the export of rabbit meat (HS code 020810) has shown a significant downward trend. The export volume from 2014 to 2016 was 12,800 tons, 0.81 million tons, and 6,400 tons, respectively. In 2017, there was a slight rebound, reaching 70,400 tons. However, in 2018 and 2019, it dropped to 5,960 tons and 4,900 tons, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2020, rabbit meat exports are 30,500 tons.
②Rabbit skin. my country’s rabbit skin trade mainly imports whole rabbit skins (HS code 43018010), while exporting a small amount of unsewn whole rabbit skins (HS code 43021920). In 2019, my country imported 17,420 tons of whole rabbit skins, a year-on-year increase of 74.2%. In the first 11 months of 2020, imports were 15.51 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.70%. In 2020, imports are expected to be 16,900 tons.
③ Rabbit fur. In 2019, my country exported 179.25 tons of rabbit fur (HS code 51053910). In the first 11 months of 2020, exports were 100.65 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39.07%. It is estimated that exports in 2020 are 110.71 tons. It can be found that the export of rabbit fur in my country will drop significantly in 2020. In the context of the decline in rabbit fur exports, my country’s rabbit fur products exports (HS code 61101920, including knitted and crocheted pullovers, cardigans, vests, etc.) have increased since 2018. In 2019, 556,600 pieces were exported, an increase of 84.24%over 2018. However, in the first 11 months of 2020, 84,600 pieces were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 84.08%, which is a sharp drop. It is estimated that 90,500 pieces will be exported in 2020.
1.1.6 Increased investment in facilities and accelerated modernization of the rabbit industry
First of all, with the increase in the economic benefits of rabbit breeding, the number of household rabbit farmers has also increased significantly, and most of the new enterprises (farmers) have strong economic strength, and the economic strength of rabbit industry practitioners has been greatly improved than before; Secondly, the increase in labor costs for raising rabbits puts greater pressure on practitioners. How to reduce labor costs and improve labor efficiency has become an important consideration for practitioners; in addition, the effect of European ladder cages in improving labor efficiency of workers has been universal It is recognized that the economic and practicality of the wet curtain negative pressure longitudinal ventilation cooling technology is also recognized. Based on the above three reasons, most of the practitioners in 2020 will choose European-style ladder rabbit cages and environmental control equipment and technology when expanding their scale or building new rabbit farms. At the same time, new environmental control greenhouse rabbit houses are also being launched in Sichuan Province. Leshan, Yibin, Luzhou and Ziyang have successively built new environmentally-controlled greenhouse rabbit houses, which have good cooling, warmth and ventilation effects. The environmental control effects and operating costs are equivalent to European-style closed houses, while construction costs are significantly lower than European-style closed houses. The application of equipment and technology in the rabbit industry has accelerated the modernization of my country’s industrial facilities.
1.1.7 The adjustment of regional structure is basically completed, forming a scientific and reasonable regional pattern of rabbit industry
With the rationalization of industry profits, the difference in regional advantages is reflected in the competitiveness of product costs. After years of regional structural adjustments, the following characteristics have been formed:①The northeast and northwest have become raw material supply bases for large-scale aquaculture. The climate is dry and sunny, making it a safe and high-quality feed material base. Although there are crop stalks in southern and eastern China, it is difficult to supply large-scale raw materials due to the climate that easily leads to mildew. However, the northeast and northwest regions are cold in winter and the transportation and energy costs are high, which will also challenge their advantages and require special attention; ②Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangdong, Fujian and other regions have become the main rabbit meat consumption regions in China. These regions have been there for many years. Consumption habits, the consumption of rabbit meat in individual counties and cities is astonishing. Some prefecture-level cities consume close to 10 million live rabbits per year; ③ Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other regions have gradually become supply bases for export enterprises. In addition to exports, most of them are shipped to the south and Sichuan and Chongqing for sale; ④ Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other regions have gradually become new domestic breeding production clusters. The climate in these areas is suitable for raising rabbits and avoiding the problems of high temperature and humidity that limit breeding efficiency.
1.1.8 The domestic market has risen rapidly, and domestic demand has become the main driving force for industrial development
The traditional export-oriented sales of the rabbit industry gradually shifted to the domestic market. ①The consumption of rabbit meat in Europe is gradually decreasing. The European consumption of rabbit meat is mainly the elderly, and the new generation consumes less rabbit meat, and the rabbit meat market is gradually shrinking. On the contrary in China, people’s consumption demand for healthy rabbit meat is getting stronger and stronger due to food safety considerations. ②The sluggish international fur market promotes the stability of meat rabbit breeding. Eastern Europe and the domestic demand for fur quality has increased, and the relative competitiveness of meat rabbit fur is not strong. The fluctuation of the meat rabbit market has stabilized due to the lack of skin hype. With the improvement of domestic living standards, the products in the meat rabbit market will gradually change from the duality of skin and meat to single meat products. ③In recent years, driven by the rapid growth of domestic rabbit meat demand, my country’s rabbit meat exports have been declining since 2015, and the proportion of exported rabbit meat in the total rabbit meat production has continued to decrease. On the contrary, the increase in the income level of urban and rural residents has continuously increased the demand for high-quality products, and domestic demand has become the main driving force for industrial development.
1.2 Problems in the development of the rabbit industry in 2020
1.2.1 Insufficient promotion of rabbit industry and insufficient marketing ability of rabbit products
Since the establishment of the National Rabbit Industry Technology System, the Rabbit Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association has organized activities such as the”China Rabbit Industry Development Conference” and”Rabbit Meat Festival” every year to actively promote the edible nutritional value of rabbit meat. People still have insufficient knowledge of rabbit meat, limited understanding of the excellent quality of rabbit skin and rabbit fur products, and far from enough understanding of”rabbit culture, rabbit industry, and rabbit products”. Due to the small size of the rabbit industry, it is not easy to get the attention of government departments. In the statistical system of the National Bureau of Statistics, the statistical monitoring of basic information of the rabbit industry is far from meeting the needs of industrial development.
1.2.2 Rabbit meat processing lags behind, and product innovation is insufficient
There are relatively few leading domestic rabbit meat production and processing enterprises, and most rabbit meat production and processing enterprises are relatively small. The existing processed rabbit meat products are mostly rough processing, and are limited to traditional Chinese types such as stir-fried, smoked roast, and flavored jerky. The products are highly homogenized and lack competitiveness. Some processing companies are small in scale, weak in driving capacity, and lack in ability to withstand market risks. There is a lack of large-scale, intensive, and industrialized high-tech deep processing bases, and the overall level of deep processing industries is low. Cost-effective, easy-to-cook semi-finished rabbit meat or a variety of high-quality products that are easy to store are still very rare on the market. In addition, the preservation technology of processed products is backward, and the quality and added value are not high, making it difficult to adapt to market competition.
1.2.3 The cost of improved seeds is high, and the ability to supply seeds is insufficient
With the large-scale development of the rabbit farm, the demand for high-quality breeding rabbits is becoming stronger, but the price of high-quality breeding rabbits is relatively high. On the one hand, due to the insufficient supply capacity of the core rabbit breeding farms or ancestral farms, it is difficult to purchase high-quality rabbits and the price is high; on the other hand, most small and medium-sized rabbit farms still adopt local methods, changing their own breeds or purchasing some local, The low-level regional breeding rabbits make the market scale of some large modern rabbit breeding farms not reach the economic level that they should be, which is detrimental to the breeding farms and general rabbit farmers. In general, the current guarantee rate of improved breeds in my country’s rabbit industry is 50%to 60%(average of 56.17%from 2017 to 2019).
1.2.4 Rising production costs, declining breeding efficiency
In 2020, especially since the second half of the year, domestic food prices have continued to rise, and various raw materials have risen across the board. Feed mills have adjusted their prices three times, with an average price increase of 250-300 yuan/t. In the case of increased feed costs, the comprehensive prohibition of resistance at the breeding end has made farmers worse, and the efficiency of breeding has declined.
1.2.5 Inadequate measures to deal with risks in the rabbit farm
In the face of the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, although various rabbit farms have taken corresponding measures, from a national perspective, the existing policies and measures still cannot protect the development of the rabbit industry well. The market is responsible for it, and financial means such as insurance and risk funds are currently not enough, and the government needs to pay due attention.
2 The development trend of the rabbit industry in 2021
After years of supply-side structural reforms, and at the same time experienced multiple impacts such as the”hand plucking” incident, non-resistant breeding, Sino-US trade friction, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, my country’s rabbit industry has achieved a good upgrade and transformation. The resilience of the entire industry is enhanced, and the rabbit industry will show the following development trends in 2021.
2.1 The meat rabbit industry will show a fluctuating growth
From the perspective of the rabbit meat market, the rabbit meat industry has entered an upward channel at the end of 2015. Even with multiple shocks in recent years, rabbit meat prices have maintained a volatile growth trend. From the perspective of the meat rabbit industry index, it is currently at a relatively high level, reaching 117.04 in December 2020, basically returning to the level before the epidemic (Figure 4).
The meat rabbit industry is expected to continue its upward trend in 2021, and the overall development of the rabbit industry will also continue to rise. The reasons are as follows:① The substitution of rabbit meat for pork, beef and mutton will continue. At the same time, after most consumers gradually adapt to rabbit meat consumption and understand the healthy nutrition of rabbit meat, they will show a certain degree of dependence, so as to achieve a certain degree of growth. ②Some large rabbit breeding companies in Xinjiang and other places keep opening up new breeding areas, which is conducive to promoting meat rabbit breeding and the popularization of rabbit meat consumption; ③After poverty alleviation, the rabbit industry will continue to receive the government (especially the government of the original poor areas) With the related support from the government and rabbit industry enterprises and the”pull force” of market demand, the meat rabbit industry will continue to rise in 2021.
2.2 The rex rabbit industry continues to adjust, and it will show a rebound.
The rex rabbit industry has generally shown a downward trend since 2014, especially the price of rex rabbit skin has been declining in fluctuation, from 52.7 yuan/piece in early 2014 to 7.5 yuan/piece in December 2020. However, driven by the price of rabbit meat, the price of live rex rabbits has been maintained at around 17 yuan/kg in the past five years, supporting the adjustment of the rex rabbit industry in fluctuations. The continued increase in the price of rabbit meat will stimulate the breeding of otter rabbits. At the same time, the supply of mink will be frustrated due to the discovery of the new crown pneumonia virus in Denmark and other countries. In addition, the winter of 2020 will increase the demand for fur clothing. These will stimulate and pull the demand of rex rabbit skin. With both”rabbit meat prices” and”rabbit skin prices” rising, it is expected that the rex rabbit industry may stop falling and rebound in 2021, although the rebound will not be significant in the short term.
2.3 The fur rabbit industry is picking up faster, and the growth momentum is gradually strengthening
In recent years, there has been a large backlog of rabbit fur in my country, and rabbit fur processing enterprises have increased their efforts to develop new products. This will increase the supply of rabbit fur products to better meet consumer demand. In recent years, in terms of poverty alleviation by rabbits, some leading companies have done a lot of work to increase the income of farmers. At the same time, local governments have also actively helped companies to increase market promotion. Exploiting the rabbit fur product market has gradually explored the way for the development of the fur rabbit industry. From the perspective of coarse wool products, even in the face of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, there has been an upward trend in 2020, and the shearing system is relatively weak, but it is basically close to the long-term bottom line of 110-120 yuan/kg. It is expected that the fur rabbit industry will begin to pick up in 2021.
From the perspective of the entire industry, as China’s new crown pneumonia epidemic is basically under control, and foreign countries are still in a large outbreak stage, the global rabbit industry will inevitably lead to a relatively insufficient supply of global rabbit products, and the Chinese rabbits that have already recovered The industry will provide important product supply to the world rabbit product market, which will also be a positive factor for the development of China’s rabbit industry.
3 Recommendations for the development of the rabbit industry in 2021
There are many favorable factors for the development of my country’s rabbit industry in 2021, but the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the industry will be passed on to 2021. In February and November 2020, the National Rabbit Industry Technology System conducted surveys on the production and operation of more than 300 farms across the country. Combined with industry monitoring and field investigations, the following development suggestions were put forward.
3.1 Continue to strengthen the promotion of rabbit products, and adopt various forms to develop the market
Due to the occasional impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, consumers are still cautious about eating out and traveling, and their consumption of rabbit meat will be adversely affected. For this reason, rabbit meat production, processing and distribution companies need to use the Internet , Change the previous promotion strategy, actively introduce professional marketing companies, use WeChat, Douyin and Kuaishou and other Internet self-media to create online celebrity products, expand the popularity of products, and attract the attention of major consumer groups in the future.
3.2 Pay attention to international market demand and increase exports appropriately
In the face of the domestic market frustration and other rabbit owners’ producing countries are deeply affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, companies should pay special attention to the international market, actively explore the international market, appropriately increase rabbit product exports, and stabilize domestic production.
3.3 Strengthen policy support for leading enterprises in the rabbit industry, and consolidate the results of poverty alleviation in the rabbit industry
In recent years, in the context of the fight against poverty, many places have regarded rabbit breeding as an important choice for poverty alleviation, especially in Xinjiang, Guizhou and other regions, where the rabbit industry has played an important role in poverty eradication. After poverty alleviation, how to upgrade the rabbit industry has become a special concern of all walks of life. With the gradual withdrawal of the government’s poverty alleviation policy, the healthy and sustainable development of the “enterprise and peasant households” consortium must be considered. Several points need to be made:① Pay close attention to leading enterprises Development avoids supporting poor farmers and dragging down leading enterprises; ②The government continues to provide financial and financial support to regions that rely on the rabbit industry to get rid of poverty and become rich.
3.4 Actively strengthen technology research and development and promotion, and strengthen the driving force of industrial development
The government should continue to strengthen the rabbit industry breeding technology, feed nutrition technology, disease prevention and control technology, rabbit product processing technology and other technology research and development, especially breeding technology, to carry out seed source”stuck neck” technology research, deployment and implementation of conservation and Biological breeding projects or special projects, and genetic improvement programs. At the same time, for the series of new technologies and new products that have been developed by the National Rabbit Industrial Technology System, the integration and promotion of these technologies should be continuously strengthened in the future, so as to increase the driving force of technology for industrial development. In addition, actively strengthen the relationship with the international rabbit industry, especially breeding companies should actively deploy global development, through relevant supporting technology and capital integration, develop standardized rabbit breeding in countries with abundant forage, feed and hydropower labor resources, so as Occupy the initiative in the industrial value chain.
3.5 Be alert to the outbreak of disease in the rabbit industry and do a good job in disease prevention and control
At present, the anti-resistance breeding policy has been implemented nationwide, but there are still many problems in the rabbit industry that need to be resolved urgently. There are very few technicians on the front line of rabbit production with the qualifications of practicing veterinarians, and the farms need to strengthen the guidance and supervision of standardized medication. Type 2 rabbit plague broke out in Sichuan in April 2020. Although the rabbit farm has been culled, the probability of another type 2 rabbit plague still exists. The current situation of complex and frequent epidemics requires local animal husbandry and veterinary authorities to closely monitor the occurrence of rabbit diseases, make early plans, and control the epidemic as soon as possible.
3.6 Actively respond to industrial risks and slow down the impact on the industry
The aquaculture industry faces relatively many risks, including market risks and natural risks. As the scale of my country’s rabbit industry continues to increase, the government should comprehensively study the characteristics of natural risks and market risks faced by the rabbit industry, formulate corresponding insurance policies, and establish industrial development funds, disaster relief and insurance policies. , To slow down the losses of large and medium-sized rabbit farms (enterprises) due to the broken capital chain and poor market sales. In addition, the government should strengthen market and industry monitoring and early warning, and provide timely and reliable information.
3.7 Companies actively take cost-saving and efficiency-increasing measures to improve their competitiveness
In 2020, the prices of feed ingredients such as corn and soybeans will rise significantly. It is expected to fall back in 2021. However, the overall supply of corn is not loose, and the price of grass meal will not be too low in the future. It requires scientific breeding by farms (households) to save costs and increase efficiency. For small and medium-scale farmers, actively develop forage resources, and moderately promote mechanization and intelligence for large and medium-sized breeding enterprises, reduce labor costs, and promote standardized breeding.