my country’s grape market and industry survey analysis report
China Agricultural Society Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Branch
my country is the world’s largest producer and consumer of table grapes. The grape industry has become a new growth point for farmers’ income, and it is also important for poverty alleviation in some poor areas. Relying on industry. In order to find out about the development of my country’s grape industry, we conducted a survey and analysis on the development of my country’s grape industry in the past five years. Field investigations were conducted in the main grape-producing regions of Xinjiang and Henan. It was found that the growth rate of my country’s grape planting area has slowed down, and the area has stabilized at 1,000. More than 10,000 mu; production continues to increase, reaching 13.667 million tons in 2018, becoming the world’s largest producer; consumption continues to grow, and annual consumption basically remains around 10 million tons; price fluctuations have a greater relationship with output and seasonality; The demand for high-quality grapes is increasing day by day, consumption patterns are diversified, and new opportunities bring new challenges, which promote the transformation and upgrading of the grape industry and high-quality development.
1. Development status of the grape industry
(1) Production status analysis
1. The planting area continues to increase, stabilizing above 10 million mu. Since the 1980s, the growing area of grapes in China has shown a fluctuating growth trend. From 1980 to 1990, my country’s grape cultivation area developed slowly on the basis of 450,000 mu; from 1991 to 2003, the scale of the grape industry gradually developed and expanded. In 2003, the planting area reached 6.315 million mu, and then fell slightly; 2007-2015 The growth reached its peak in 2015 at 11.985 million mu; 2016-2018 stabilized, with the planting area stabilizing at around 10.5 million mu.
Figure 1 National grape growing area from 1980 to 2018
Data source:”China Agriculture Yearbook”
2. The output continues to grow and remains above 10 million tons. In the past 40 years, China’s grape production has continued to grow rapidly, and it has become the world’s largest producer of grapes. From 1980 to 1990, my country’s grape production was below 900,000 tons; from 1990 to 2000, it grew at a low rate, and by the end of 2000, the total output reached 3.282 million tons; the output in 2012 exceeded 10 million tons for the first time, reaching 10.006 million tons; 2016-2018 trends With steady development, the output in 2018 reached 13.667 million tons.
Figure 2 National Grape Production from 1980 to 2018
Data source:”China Agriculture Yearbook”
3. The planting area is concentrated. The main grape-producing areas in my country are concentrated in historically advantageous planting areas such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Hebei and Shandong. In 2018, the planting area in Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Hebei, Yunnan and Shandong was 214.4, 70.1, 62.7, 61.5 and 543,000 mu, accounting for 19.7%, 6.4%, 5.8%, 5.7%and 5.0%respectively. The planting area in 5 provinces reached 4.629 million mu, accounting for 42.6%of the total area.
Table 1 2018 Grape Planting Area and Regional Distribution Table
Data source:”China Statistical Yearbook” and”China Agriculture Yearbook”
4. The variety structure continued to be optimized, and the summer black and sunny rose developed rapidly. In recent years, the structure of grape varieties in my country has been further optimized, and the variety of varieties has become more abundant. Among the fresh food species, the cultivation area of Kyoho, Red Globe, and Rose Fragrant accounted for more than 70%of the total area of viticulture; varieties such as Juhu, Zaoheibao, Zuijinxiang and excellent single lines of thorn grape developed rapidly; Xiaheiwu Kyoho cultivars such as Heli and Sunshine Rose, and seedless cultivars such as Flame Seedless and Kreisen have further increased due to their strong resistance, good taste and high quality, especially the area of Sunshine Rose has increased rapidly.
(2) Consumption analysis
1. The consumption of table grapes is on the rise. The consumption of table grapes in my country has been increasing year by year. In 2014, the consumption was 9.16 million tons, which was more than 10 million tons in 2015-2017. In 2018, it decreased slightly to 9.43 million tons. The grape market supply mainly comes from domestic production.
Figure 3 China’s table grape consumption in 2014-2018
Data source:China Industry Information Network
2. Diversified consumption patterns, e-commerce drives online consumption. The consumption of grapes in my country is dominated by fresh food, and the sales channels are mainly fruit supermarkets, stores, and retail windows. The rapid development of fresh agricultural products e-commerce, cold chain logistics and fruit chain stores has enriched the channels and ways of purchasing grapes.
3. The demand for high-quality grapes is increasing day by day, and the prices of high-quality, traditional and general varieties are quite different. As residents’ income levels increase and consumption upgrades, consumers are more interested in high-quality, distinctive, and brand-name grapes. The price monitoring data of the fruit wholesale market shows that the wholesale price of high-quality grape varieties is as high as 40 yuan per kilogram, with the general varieties being 16-20 yuan and the traditional varieties only 6-10 yuan. The prices of high-quality grapes are high and there is no worries about sales.
(3) Import and export analysis
In the past five years, my country’s import volume of table grapes has increased, the import volume has fluctuated slightly, and the export volume and export volume have increased significantly. In 2018, the import and export volume declined slightly, but The trade surplus is still maintained.
Chile, Peru and the United States are the main import sources of our country’s table grapes, and neighboring Asian countries and regions such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia are our fresh food The main exporter of grapes. In 2018, the imports of table grapes from Chile, Peru, and the United States were 118,000 tons, 46,000 tons, and 11,000 tons, respectively, accounting for 75.3%of the total imports; table grapes exported to Thailand exceeded 90,000 tons , The export volume accounted for 32.5%. The unit price of imports was US$2.5 per kilo, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%; the unit price of exports was US$2.5 per kilo, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.
(four) price analysis
The domestic grape prices are extremely polarized, and prices vary significantly in different regions, varieties, and months of launch. The market price of grapes in 2019 was higher than that in 2018, and the average market price in most regions was 1.0 yuan per kilogram higher than the previous year.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of grapes in the national grape market in 2019 remained at 8-14 yuan per kilogram. The price of grapes is closely related to the time to market. In April, the price of grapes rose to 11 yuan per kilogram, and in May it was as high as 14 yuan. As the grapes entered the full fruit period (June to October), the price dropped all the way, and reached the bottom at the end of October, at 8 yuan per kilogram. In December, due to the influence of festive consumption, the price rose slightly. From the perspective of the trend of grape prices from 2015 to 2019, the highest price of grapes in the grape market appeared at the end of May and early June. At this time, early-maturing grapes in the south and grapes promoted by the northern greenhouse have not yet been launched in large quantities; the lowest prices appear from the end of September to early October. This period is the time when the northern open field grapes are mature and concentrated on the market.
Figure 4 Grape price trend from 2015 to 2019
Data source:Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
(5) Cost-benefit analysis
The cost of growing grapes mainly includes fertilizer and pesticide expenses. Compared with farmers, cooperatives also include labor, agricultural machinery and land rent costs, so the production cost of cooperatives is relatively high. From February to May 2020, a survey of representative grape growers and cooperatives in Luoyang, Xuchang, and Shangqiu, Henan Province, found that farmers’ production costs are relatively low, but cooperatives have advantages in large-scale production, and the comprehensive use rate of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is relatively high. The amount of organic fertilizer is large, the fruit quality is high, and the unit price is higher than that of farmers. In general, the income of cooperatives is slightly higher than that of farmers.
2. Prospects for the development of the grape industry
(1) The growth rate of planting area slowed down, and output continued to increase. In recent years, with the acceleration of land circulation and driven by higher planting yields, my country’s grape planting area and output have expanded rapidly. Due to the introduction of new varieties, the promotion of new models, new technologies, and new facilities, the efficiency of grape planting has increased year by year. Especially in the southern regions where grapes cannot be planted traditionally, the planting area continues to increase. It is expected that my country’s grape production will continue to increase in the future without major climate disasters.
(2) Consumption continued to grow, and processing consumption grew rapidly. With changes in dietary concepts and increased purchasing power, rural residents’ grape consumption levels continue to increase. Processing consumption will become an important growth point for consumption. Income growth and consumption upgrades are conducive to boosting the demand for grape processing products. In order to prevent and control the risk of fresh fruit price fluctuations and stabilize earnings expectations, the company is committed to extending the industrial chain and expanding processing capacity.
(3) The import volume of table grapes has increased steadily, and the export volume has continued to grow. As the income level of residents increases and the consumption structure upgrades, the import of table grapes will still have a certain room for growth. The improvement of grape quality will help to open up the international market, and it is expected that the export volume will continue to grow.
(4) The market price has risen steadily. With the increase in grape production, the overall supply is sufficient, and the price increase momentum is weak. Production and operation costs, especially labor costs, will continue to increase. Together with the overall improvement in grape quality, prices are expected to fluctuate.
3. Development of characteristic grape industries in poverty-stricken areas
(1) Overall situation
In order to effectively promote poverty alleviation, the country has carried out effective industrial poverty alleviation work. In many explorations and practices, the grape industry with fast and high benefits has been favored. Pillar industries for poverty alleviation have played a positive role in helping poor areas get rid of poverty and become rich.
(2) Main experience and practice
1. Develop professional planting cooperatives to drive poverty alleviation. Ningling County, Henan Province, is a professional grape planting cooperative with a planting area of 4,600 acres, covering 6 village committees, 306 farmers, and driving 150 poor households out of poverty. Cooperatives provide fruit farmers with production materials, technical support, product sales and other services.
2. Promote grape and poultry breeding industry. Henan Modern Shuangfei Agricultural Ecological Park covers an area of 1,500 acres, has built a grape culture sightseeing corridor of 3,500 meters, 50 greenhouses, resettled more than 400 poor households and helped more than 1,000 poor households, of which more than 350 have been successfully lifted out of poverty , Forming a grape and poultry farming industry integrating science and technology demonstration, poultry farming under shelf, leisure picking, tourism and sightseeing.
3. Build brand tourism industry. The grape industry has developed from a planting industry to culture and leisure tourism. In recent years, cultural festivals with grapes as the theme have been held in various places. Such as the”Yanhuai River Valley Grape Culture Festival” and”Jiangyin Grape Culture Festival”, which uses the grape industry as a starting point to drive new forms of rural tourism.
(three) typical case analysis
Typical Case 1:Typical Case in Biyang County, Henan Province
Jiaozhuyuan Village, Tongshan Township, Biyang County, Henan Province, is located in a shallow hilly area and is a provincial-level poor village in western Henan. In 2011, Jiaozhuyuan Village introduced high-quality facilities grapes and other planting projects, with the company as the leader, motivating farmers to join the farmers’ professional cooperatives. The grapes were successfully listed in 2012, with an output of 110 tons, and sales revenue of more than 4 million yuan that year. Since the development of characteristic industries in Jiaozhuyuan Village, 30 households in the village and more than 900 poor households in the surrounding areas have been lifted out of poverty.
As a provincial-level poor village, Jiaozhuyuan focuses on grape picking and uses the grape festival as a platform to make full use of local resource advantages to develop the grape industry and achieve poverty alleviation. The development path of”getting rich” has identified a powerful starting point for the development of rural poverty alleviation industries.
Typical Case 2:Typical Case in Ningling County, Henan Province
Henan Ningling County is the largest grape production base in the old course of the Yellow River. There are more than 10 professional cooperative economic organizations for farmers, through training, guidance, employment, etc. To train farmers as skilled workers to pay wages, not only”giving people a fish” but also”teaching them to fish”, poverty alleviation first aids wisdom, and helps poor households to get rid of poverty and not return to poverty.
4. Problems and risks faced by the development of the grape industry span>
(1) Main issues
1. The structure of the main varieties is single. In the past 10 years, more than 100 new grape varieties have been bred in China, but they have not been widely promoted. The main varieties produced are mainly foreign bred varieties, and the fresh food varieties are mostly Kyoho, Red Globe, Summer Black and Sunshine Rose; in the production of wine grapes, Cabernet Sauvignon is the main plant, and the main planted varieties have a single structure.
2. The intensive processing technology is backward. my country’s branded wines have weak aromas, lack of typical styles of producing areas, serious product homogeneity, lack of core competitiveness, insufficient comprehensive utilization of grapes, backward intensive processing technologies and techniques, and few large-scale processing enterprises.
3. The degree of industrialization and organization is low. my country’s grape industry is basically a family unit, and the contradiction between small production and large market is prominent. Leading enterprises and professional cooperatives are small in scale, small in number, and small in function, and their ability to drive the industry is not strong.
(2) Risk Analysis
1. Risk of abnormal weather in spring. Abnormal weather such as continuous low temperature during the spring flowering period of grapes, overcast and rainy days, etc., have a direct impact on the time to market, specifications, yields, and diseases of grapes, and are important factors that affect the uncertainty of the grape market.
2. Risk of price fluctuations. With the adjustment of the agricultural planting structure, the growth rate of grape planting area may be greater than expected, and the supply volume will increase substantially. However, consumption growth is relatively lagging, coupled with the poor connection between grape production and sales, and the risk of market price fluctuations is relatively high.
3. International trade risks. The changes in China’s fruit access policies in countries such as India and Indonesia are important uncertain factors affecting international grape trade.
5. Suggestions on policies and measures
(1) Optimize variety structure and improve fruit quality. Promote the planting of early and late grape varieties, adjust and optimize the structure of grape varieties, and continuously improve the quality of grapes.
(2) Give full play to the power of cooperative organizations and strengthen market regulation methods. Provide professional and fast communication and training services for the development of the grape industry, formulate industry norms, give play to the role of cooperatives as bridges, and strengthen market regulation methods.
(3) Guidance, encouragement, precise assistance, and strengthen policy resource support. Increase policy and financial assistance to help professional cooperatives and growers develop new marketing models such as e-commerce, farm-supermarket docking, boutique gardening, sightseeing picking, and experiential consumption, and boost the development of the grape industry.
report writers and research team members:Li Xiaohong, Liu Haijiao, Wang Ying, Wang Laigang, Pei Xinyong, Wu Yabei, Zheng Guoqing Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences Agricultural Economics and Information Institute
(Operation Control Division, Market and Information Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)